Securing Democracy Dispatch

The second Trump administration finds a Kremlin that is unlikely to reach a quick deal over Ukraine or cease its malign behavior, even if offered US concessions. Co-Managing Director David Salvo offers five recommendations to guide Washington’s approach toward Moscow.

The new administration also begins as the United States faces a fragmented information space, increased foreign interference efforts, and rising mistrust between Americans. US leadership should address these challenges, including by kickstarting a national dialogue on the new information age, Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson wrote.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• TikTok Ban: After the US Supreme Court’s decision to allow a federal ban on TikTok in the United States, Lenta.ru reported that Americans called 911 “en masse” because they could no longer access the app on their devices. Moscow 24 added that American TikTok users published a massive number of videos that showcased their suffering and demanded the platform’s return. Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyev shared an image generated by artificial intelligence that depicted Trump holding up a TikTok sign, along with his proposal to create a joint venture in which the United States will receive a 50% stake in the company; TASS noted that the US side of this venture could involve Elon Musk.
• US Sanctions: Russian propaganda outlets celebrated the possibility of US sanctions being lifted as part of peace negotiations with Ukraine. TASS cited newly confirmed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who named easing sanctions and Kyiv’s neutrality as likely conditions of any negotiations. Moscow 24 claimed that the US Department of the Treasury approved transactions with nine Russian banks and partially lifted transaction bans for several Russian companies, including Gazprom Shelfproject, Rosnefteflot, and Gazprom Neft. (There is no publicly available evidence to support this claim.) RT and Sputnik amplified Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s declaration that it is time to “throw sanctions out the window” and establish sanctions-free relations with Moscow. At the same time, Russian state media acknowledged new US sanctions imposed by the departing Biden administration on several Russian military companies and the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week: 

• TikTok Ban: PRC diplomats and state media outlets closely followed the developments surrounding a possible TikTok ban in the United States. When US users moved to Xiaohongshu, another Chinese social media app, ahead of the ban, the PRC ambassador to Colombia, state media outlet Sixth Tone, and Xinhua rejoiced at the prospect of increased linguistic and cultural exchanges. CGTN Europe portrayed the migration between apps as “a form of digital protest”, while the Consul General in Belfast, Ireland and pro-PRC influencer Li Jingjing implied that the TikTok ban was meant to keep US citizens insulated from China’s supposedly superior standards of living. The PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson declared on Monday that TikTok was a boon for the US economy, a claim further relayed by CGTN and its commentators.
• Trump’s Inauguration: PRC messaging explored the possibility of better relations with the United States under the Trump administration, highlighting the second-time president’s “pragmatism” and the change from “zero-sum Biden”. CGTN Europe’s video of Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulating the new US President and praising his “courage” amassed over 70,000 likes and over 3,100 comments on TikTok. PRC diplomats in Japan and Pakistan relayed Alex Jones’ amplification of claims that Nancy Pelosi was behind the January 6 riots. Of the flurry of new executive orders, PRC state media highlighted the US withdrawal from the World Health Organization, its second exit from the Paris climate accord, the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico, and the stay of execution for TikTok. Some coverage of Trump was critical. For example, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times derided the launch of Trump’s own cryptocurrency.

Russian influence campaign targets Germany ahead of elections: A Russian information campaign on X has promoted content that praises the German far-right party Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) and degrades its mainstream opponents and the state of Germany’s economy, often linking to falsified websites that mimic legitimate German news outlets such as Der Spiegel and Welt. Co-Managing Director David Salvo told the Dispatch, “Russia’s boosting of AfD is another component of its notorious Doppelgӓnger operation, which has spread Russian propaganda and false information to European audiences for the past three or so years. The operation is particularly active ahead of elections, which Germany will hold next month. Doppelgӓnger targeted French and German voters, among others, ahead of last year’s European Parliament elections too. One of the network’s main tactics is cybersquatting, or directing users to websites that spoof authentic news outlets, sometimes convincingly, with the intent to mislead Germans into believing they are consuming pro-AfD content on legitimate German media sites, and consequently give the impression that AfD enjoys—and should enjoy more—broad support.”

TikTok thanks Trump for restoring US services: On Sunday, TikTok credited Trump for restoring its services in the United States in a pop-up message to users, after a scheduled federal ban on TikTok went into effect and made the app unavailable for 14 hours this weekend. Trump subsequently issued an executive order that will delay the ban for 75 days upon taking office on Monday. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson said, “In the last few weeks, we’ve seen tech leaders perform gymnastics to align themselves and their companies more closely with Trump’s policies and vision. TikTok has smartly made appeals, including publicly thanking Trump on its platform, designed to benefit the platform and keep it operating in the United States. Despite the many twists and turns in this storyline over the last nine months—we can expect more with the executive order only delaying the issue—TikTok still raises serious national security vulnerabilities that must be mitigated.”

In Case You Missed It

• Iran and Russia agreed to strengthen military, security, and technological cooperation, including through further collaboration on cybersecurity and internet regulation.
• The US Department of Homeland Security’s acting secretary dissolved an advisory committee that had been investigating a recent PRC-linked hack of US communications.
• Trump reversed a Biden-era executive order that required developers of large AI models to share safety tests with the US government, among other AI regulations.
• Russian cybercriminals have increasingly posed as technology support on Microsoft Teams before luring employees into installing ransomware on their devices, a British cybersecurity company found.

Elon Musk’s influence: Catalyst or symptom of EU political shifts. Research Analyst Etienne Soula quoted in The Parliament Magazine

A parting word from Anne Neuberger. ASD research/“Inflaming Divides” highlighted in Politico Pro Morning Cybersecurity

Migration, Zölle, Klimaschutz: Diese Vorhaben von Trump könnten an Gerichten und am Kongress scheitern (Migration, tariffs, climate protection: Trump’s plans could fail in the courts and Congress). Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson quoted in Tagesspiegel (in German)

عودة ترمب.. نسخة معدلة أم المزيد من الجدل؟ – تقرير واشنطن مع رنا أبتر. (Trump’s return… a more modified version or more controversy? – Washington report with Rana Apter). Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson interviewed on Asharq News (in Arabic)

Дональд Трамп советует Владимиру Путину заключить перемирие с Украиной. Что говорят в Киеве и Москве? (Donald Trump advises Vladimir Putin to conclude a truce with Ukraine. What do they say in Kiev and Moscow?). Co-Managing Director David Salvo interviewed on Russian Service of Voice of America (in Russian)

PolitiFact | Estas fotos de animales heridos en los incendios de Los Ángeles fueron hechas con IA, no son reales (These photos of animals injured in the Los Angeles fires were made with AI, are not real). Research Assistant Krystyna Sikora quoted in PolitiFact (in Spanish)

“The Treasury Department will continue to use its authorities to hold accountable malicious cyber actors who target the American people, our companies, and the United States government, including those who have targeted the Treasury Department specifically.”

—Deputy US Treasury Secretary Adewale O. Adeyemo, in a statement about sanctions against a Chinese cybersecurity company tied to the recent hack of US telecommunications companies.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.