Securing Democracy Dispatch

Especially after Iran targeted US President-elect Donald Trump in the 2024 election cycle, his incoming administration should build on existing US government work to counter foreign interference in the United States, including by maintaining current institutional structures, Co-Managing Director David Salvo wrote.

The EU must “more forcefully confront the revisionist regimes that use hybrid tactics” against European infrastructure, elections, and democratic institutions or risk turning “the continent into a mere battleground for larger powers”, Research Analyst Etienne Soula told the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• The Fall of Assad: As Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime began to collapse last week, RIA Novosti released a report accusing the Ukrainian government of supporting “terrorism in Aleppo”, while the Russian mission to the United Nations blamed the United States for encouraging terrorism in Syria. Following Assad’s resignation and decision to flee to Moscow, the Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov declared that, unlike the United States, Russia does not “betray its friends in difficult situations”. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) distanced Russia from the power transition and emphasized that Moscow did not participate in any negotiations between the deposed government and the opposition. Meanwhile, RT en Español journalist Helena Villar called out alleged US hypocrisy and double standards, juxtaposing the US State Department’s previous offer of a bounty for the capture of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani and his appearances on CNN.
• Romania’s Presidential Election: Russian politicians and journalists described the cancellation of the second round of the presidential elections in Romania as a “total circus”, signs of a “dictatorship”, and a “coup d’état. Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova described an “unprecedented outburst of anti-Russia hysteria”, which preceded the Romanian Constitutional Court’s decision to annul the first round of election results. Pro-Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyev called this decision “another attempt by Soros/Marxist to falsify the results and deny the will of the people”. RT en Español journalist Helena Villar stated that the elections were annulled because Brussels and Washington did not like the leading candidate, Călin Georgescu. Sputnik Serbia suggested the voting would continue until “the US candidate wins”.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week: 

• The Fall of Assad: When prodded about the fall of the Assad regime, the PRC’s MFA spokesperson responded that Beijing is hoping for “a political settlement” that “should be decided by the Syrian people”. On TikTok, CGTN Europe’s short video quoting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s vow to prevent Syria from being “divided once again” was viewed over 130,000 times. Earlier this week, CGTN Europe amplified Iranian comments that Assad’s fall was part of a “US-Israeli plan”, and across all monitored platforms, PRC state media highlighted ongoing Israeli military activity in Syria. PRC commentator Li Jingjing also reposted comments that accused the United States of hypocrisy for allegedly supporting terrorism in Syria while opposing “Hamas and other resistance forces fighting against colonial occupation in Palestine”.
• Taiwan: Taiwan was brought up at every MFA press conference last week, notably around the PRC’s decision to sanction US companies that have provided military equipment to the island and to conduct large military exercises after the Taiwanese foreign minister’s visit to Guam and Hawaii. China Daily and the Global Times were especially active in amplifying the MFA’s fiery rhetoric. On the diplomatic side, the PRC ambassador to Colombia highlighted the PRC’s sanctions, while the ambassador to Iceland denounced “Taiwan[‘s] separatists activities”. On Instagram, Li Jingjing interviewed a “Taiwan compatriot anti-imperialist rapper” about “how Taiwan secessionists and foreign interveners” are obfuscating the island’s “Chinese roots”.

GOP voters’ confidence in US election administration increases in new poll: Nearly nine in ten US voters called the country’s November elections “very well” or “somewhat well” run, an approximately 30% increase since 2020, according to a Pew Research Center survey. This shift was driven exclusively by an increase in Republican voters’ confidence in US elections; 93% of those who voted for Trump approved of how the election was run. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson told the Dispatch, “While there is an element of ‘my candidate won, therefore I believe the election to be well run’ here, election officials and their partners should take a victory lap for a job well done. Election administration in 2024 was superb, with most elections being run in a transparent and secure way. When honest election mistakes happened, election officials acted quickly to communicate with voters and fix problems. When some polling stations received hoax bomb threats, the relationships built ahead of this election between law enforcement and election officials proved their worth. This success does not mean the work is done—elections can always be safer, more transparent, and more secure—but it does show that state and local officials who run elections have the support of the vast majority of Americans. Let’s keep it that way.” 

South Korean opposition leader thought shocking martial law decree was “deepfake”: The leader of South Korea’s main opposition party, Lee Jae-myung, initially thought President Yoon Suk Yeol’s surprise announcement of martial law last week “ha[d] to be a deepfake” generated by artificial intelligence (AI), he told CNN. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer said, “While Lee’s comments probably reflect more of his complete disbelief at the president’s announcement than genuine confusion about its authenticity, it still speaks to the ability of AI to muddle our sense of reality, particularly in moments when reality is hard to fathom or information is scarce.”

In Case You Missed It

• Romania’s Constitutional Court has overturned the results of the first round of the country’s presidential election, citing intelligence reports that suggested widespread Russian interference and violations of electoral law on TikTok.
• Advisers working on Trump’s presidential transition are reportedly planning to split up the leadership of US Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, which traditionally had one director.
• The United Kingdom will share intelligence with Cyprus’ newly formed unit dedicated to investigating Russian efforts to evade sanctions; the United States and United Kingdom will also provide training to Cypriot law enforcement to investigate financial crimes.
• US officials sanctioned a Chinese cyber company and indicted an employee involved in compromising approximately 81,000 online firewalls belonging to thousands of businesses worldwide in April 2020, including those protecting US critical infrastructure.
• TikTok filed a legal challenge against the Canadian government’s order last month to shut down its business operations in the country over national security concerns.

Digital Warfare: When Fake News Becomes Dangerous Weapons. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer quoted in Der Standard

“I see the examples from Romania, but also other parts, that [the] Russians have really cracked the code on how to influence elections.”

—Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, discussing the disruptive role of emerging technologies during a Politico event on December 10.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.