Announcements

Co-Managing Director David Salvo moderated a panel on democratic resilience at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s 70th Annual Session in Montreal. Read about the conclusions agreed at the summit here!

Our Takes

The chief task for strengthening the state of US democracy in the next decade will be “finding a way to engage the political middle, not just to turn out every four years … but to actually be engaged in politics and help govern”, Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson told Fox News

“The easiest way for foreign governments to win an information operation is to sow chaos. … As domestic turmoil deepens, the United States is forced to focus on internal issues, leaving less attention and resources to address international affairs”, Senior Fellow Bret Schafer told Japan News.

Hamilton 2.0 Analysis

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

  • Georgia Protests: Russian state media advanced the narrative that the West is behind protests in Georgia to overthrow the newly elected government, which the EU does not recognize. Sputnik Vietnam drew parallels with the Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine, suggesting that the “Deep State” is behind the “staged unrest”, while Sputnik’s Serbian-language service claimed that the EU directly supports the protests. Russian news agency TASS cited the executive secretary of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Mamuka Mdinaradze, who declared that “nearly a third of those identified at protests in Tbilisi are foreigners”. Sputnik declared that the US decision to freeze its strategic partnership with Georgia shows that Washington is not interested in an independent Georgia and that it is punishing the current government because it protects Georgian sovereignty. Casting doubt on the protests’ success, TASS reported that the number of protesters “has considerably diminished”, while Sputnik Serbia predicted that the protests would not mirror those that toppled the Ukrainian government in 2014 because the Georgian government is stronger, while the West is “crackling like ice in spring”.
  • War in Ukraine: Russian state media amplified unverified information claiming that the Russian military hit a train loaded with long-range ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles in the port of Chornomorsk, Ukraine on November 28. The claim started with Sergei Lebedev, a coordinator of pro-Russian resistance in Ukraine, who shared that the train arrived from Romania and, according to the “unofficial information”, contained Western long-range missiles that Ukraine has been using to attack Russian territory. This report has been widely picked up across several news sources, such as RIA Novosti, Vesti, Gazeta.ru, Argumenty i Fakty, as well as in foreign languages on RT Balkan, Sputnik Iran, and Russian intelligence-linked website South Front. Reputable news organizations have not independently verified this claim.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week: 

  • Hunter Biden Pardon: PRC state media blasted US President Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter over the weekend. Xinhua quoted George Orwell’s “all humans are equal, but some are more equal than others”, quipped that “no one is above the law except Hunter”, and explained that “three quarters of US adult citizens” deemed such a move “inappropriate”. The Global Times relayed US President-elect Donald Trump’s statement that the pardon was a “miscarriage of justice”. CGTN America highlighted the “outrage and claims of hypocrisy” brought on by Biden’s decision. PRC diplomats in Japan and Pakistan amplified content critical of the pardon.
  • Pro-Russian Neutrality: On Thursday, the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Russian state media outlet TASS that it was “paying close attention to the nuclear risks triggered by the Ukraine crisis”. The Global Times published an op-ed about “the international community maintain[ing] patience and rationality” alongside a cartoon portraying the United States as a warmonger. CGTN Europe made a concerted push on TikTok, Facebook, X, and Instagram to amplify Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warnings about Russia’s newest missile with “destructive power akin to a nuclear weapon”. A PRC state media commentator lauded the completion of a new Russia-China gas pipeline.

News and Commentary

Growing evidence points to Russian interference in Romanian elections: Romanian intelligence revealed that Russian cybercriminals launched 85,000 cyberattacks against the country’s election network and that a network of TikTok accounts published “swarms” of content in support of outsider candidate Călin Georgescu starting two weeks before the election; TikTok officials also said they removed a “cluster” of inauthentic pro-Georgescu accounts—including one connected to Russian state media—days after the election. Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas told the Dispatch, “The shocking first-place finish of Georgescu, a largely unknown, anti-establishment, pro-Russia candidate and the allegations that have emerged since point to a simple truth: election after election, EU member states discover how much harsher and more brazen the threat landscape in this domain is becoming. The fact that the recently released batch of intelligence documents does not confirm, but nonetheless strongly suggests potential Russian involvement, means that there is still much work to be done to have faster threat analysis and sufficiently firm defenses. The fact that a social media platform may have been manipulated to such an extent to have a sizable impact in a critical election points in the same direction. Yet again, regardless of the election’s final outcome, alarm bells are ringing.” 

Bomb threats, swatting incidents target figures from both US parties: Top US Democratic and Republican lawmakers condemned numerous bomb threats and swatting incidents that targeted several of Trump’s cabinet nominees and at least nine Congressional Democrats leading up to and during the Thanksgiving holiday. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson said, “While many of the worst-case scenarios for political violence following the elections were avoided, this concerning trend of seemingly politically motivated ‘swatting’ that first plagued our election officials continues. This tactic of intimidation has no place in our politics; it’s a relief to see bipartisan agreement on that point.” 

Google removes more than 1,000 PRC-linked inauthentic news sites: Google has removed more than 1,000 inauthentic news sites and domains linked to four China-based public relations firms that posed as independent or local news outlets in nearly 30 countries across North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa, that often republished PRC state media articles or government press releases. Research Analyst Etienne Soula said, “This latest takedown—which revealed a sophisticated influence operation using faux news websites, social media accounts, and press distribution platforms—highlights the already global scale of PRC information manipulation campaigns. The PRC is likely taking full advantage of the widespread availability of tools powered by artificial intelligence to easily, and at little cost, produce and disseminate ever larger amounts of content in a growing number of languages. Absent concerted tech regulation from democracies, this type of operation could become the new normal.”

In Case You Missed It

  • Germany’s intelligence service established a task force dedicated to countering foreign threats ahead of the country’s February 2025 election, including cyberattacks, espionage, sabotage, and information campaigns.
  • US officials have urged Americans to use encrypted messaging apps amid a massive PRC-linked hacking group’s cyberattack that is affecting at least eight US telecommunications providers and dozens of countries.
  • Iranian hackers targeted Kash Patel, Trump’s nominee for FBI director, reportedly accessing at least some of his communications.
  • An Azerbaijani state-sponsored organization has amplified content online, mainly on X, aimed at sowing division in France’s overseas constituencies and Corsica since as early as July 2023, according to a report from Viginium, a French government agency.
  • Outrage drives the spread of foreign manipulated information, with users more likely to share content without verifying its accuracy surrounding controversial issues, according to a new report.

ASD in the News

Media Watch: What’s behind Chinese officials’ social media diplomacy. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer/“Hamilton 2.0 Dashboard” cited in Radio Free Asia

Novú európsku komisiu čakajú mnohé výzvy (Many challenges await the new European Commission). Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas interviewed on Spràvy

Quote of the Week

“This year there were 500 suspicious incidents in Europe. Up to 100 of them can be attributed to Russian hybrid attacks, espionage, influence operations.”

—Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, in comments to reporters ahead of a meeting with NATO counterparts in Brussels on December 4.

 

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.