Securing Democracy Dispatch

ASD and the McCain Institute held an event last Thursday about artificial intelligence (AI) and elections last week in Phoenix, featuring remarks from Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates, and more. Watch the full discussion here! Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson also moderated a GMF panel on the key issues driving Americans to the polls. Click here to watch the conversation.

The Committee for Safe and Secure Elections, of which ASD Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson has been part, launched a new campaign to highlight how law enforcement, election officials, and veterans are defending against threats to elections. Check it out here!

“It’s reassuring how much better election officials have gotten around communication in advance of the election,” including about combating false election narratives, Senior Fellow Bret Schafer told CNN.

US officials’ decision to communicate to the public about foreign election interference is a welcome strategy, but polarization and a lack of trust within American society challenges these efforts’ effectiveness, Co-Managing Director David Salvo told the New Yorker.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Moldova: After last Sunday’s EU referendum in Moldova, Russian officials denied allegations of interference and asserted that Moldovan authorities employed “antidemocratic, totalitarian methods” during the campaign. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova called into question the results of the constitutional referendum, asserting that “inexplicably for many Moldovans” results changed at last minute and citizens residing in Moldova rejected EU integration. Zakharova also claimed that the Moldovan leadership “extensively utilized administrative resources” to swing the vote, alluding to the “bussing in” of expatriate voters to polling stations in Western European countries. Along these lines, Mikhail Ulyanov, the Permanent Representative of Russia to International Organizations in Vienna, emphasized that the number of polling stations for Moldovans residing in Western countries was much larger than that of polling places for Moldovans in Russia. The Russian MFA also criticized the fact that there were allegedly only two polling stations in Russia for 500,000 voters in the country.
• BRICS: Starting on October 22, Russia hosted the 16th BRICS Summit. Official Kremlin news media widely covered the ongoing BRICS summit and its preceding business forum, both hosted in Russia. They proclaimed the West’s attempt to isolate Russia as a failure, as evidenced by the 32 delegations at the summit. RT en Español cited Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments that “the whole world wondered if it is worth using the dollar”. Sputnik Mundo highlighted BRICS countries’ “economic sovereignty” and increasing economic autarky. RIA Novosti covered participants of the BRICS business forum pilot-testing a new BRICS Pay app, which allows each country in the organization to make payments using a QR code without converting local currencies through US or European payment systems. RIA Novosti, citing Putin, noted that “the use of the dollar as a weapon undermines trust in this currency” and that “Russia has to search for alternatives”.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week: 

• BRICS: The PRC’s coverage of the BRICS Summit highlighted the inclusion of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. PRC messaging promoted leader Xi Jinping’s presence at the summit, as well as his meetings with Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on X, Facebook, TikTok and Instagram. Some accounts, like the PRC embassy in the United States and China News, advertised the bloc’s combined population and its economic weight. Others, like the Global Times and China Daily, insisted that the group was “not anti-West”, before adding that it should not be a cause of worry for “countries that don’t seek to maintain the unfair and unjust world order”. Finally, the PRC ambassador in Colombia and the spokesperson for the PRC embassy in India both amplified Russian state media content that promoted the gathering.
• Criticism of the United States: Last week on X, PRC Vice Foreign Minister Hua Chunying asked “what does the [US] government really care about?” with a short video clip juxtaposing US citizens struggling in the aftermath of two hurricanes with an announcement that US military equipment was being deployed to the Middle East. The PRC’s MFA, as well as PRC diplomats in Afghanistan, India, Japan, and Pakistan, amplified this. PRC state media quoted US academic John Mearsheimer, who called democracy “the velvet glove over the iron fist” of US imperialism. PRC state media also mocked the United States’ alleged double standards over freedom of navigation and accused American “strategists” of fostering separatism in China.

Kremlin influence campaign smears Democratic VP candidate, US intelligence says: Russian influence actors created and amplified online content that falsely accused the Democratic vice-presidential nominee of sexual abuse, including a manipulated video of a purported victim that garnered millions of views on X and other platforms, according to US intelligence officials. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson told the Dispatch, “We can expect Russia and other foreign actors, Iran in particular, to increase efforts to sow division and confusion, and undermine confidence in this election now, on Election Day, and in the critical post-election period. The manufactured allegations against the Democratic vice-presidential candidate underscore how careful voters must be when consuming information during this time period. Russian actors have shown a willingness to employ fake straight to camera videos in hopes of attaining a ‘viral moment’. Russia and Iran clearly have candidate preferences, but a less functional democracy divided against itself and less effective on the world stage is a win for them, irrespective of the outcome of the election.” 

Maricopa County election officials expect the vote tally to take 10-13 days: Election officials in Maricopa County, Arizona are asking voters to be patient for election results as they predict that vote tabulation will take between 10 to 13 days due to longer-than-typical ballots and expected high turnout in this election. Research Assistant Krystyna Sikora said, “Voters need to understand and accept that knowing all election results on Election Night is a thing of the past in tight races. Longer vote counts are normal and not indicators of malfeasance, especially when we expect a close race. Instead, it is evidence that election officials are taking time to get it right and ensure results are accurate. Maricopa County’s preemptive notice is critical to minimizing harmful conspiracies by giving voters a more realistic timeline.”

In Case You Missed It

• The Georgia secretary of state’s office repelled a cyberattack suspected to have been directed by a foreign adversary that attempted to take the state’s absentee ballot request website offline.
• Russia is already mounting an influence campaign to sow doubts about US election results and incite political violence, according to US intelligence.
• 62% of Americans believe political violence after Election Day is likely, but the vast majority—77% of Republicans and 85% of Democrats—are ready to accept the election results regardless of the outcome, a Scripps News/Ipsos poll found.
• A PRC-linked online influence network is using hijacked online accounts to spread unfavorable content about US Senator Marco Rubio on X, Reddit, and other sites, Clemson University researchers found.
• The US Department of State is offering up to $10 million for information about a Russian media organization accused of spreading propaganda to influence the US election.
• US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Jen Easterly said US election infrastructure is more secure than ever despite foreign efforts to erode voters’ trust.

Biden administration lending protection to Moldovan election amid Russian interference. Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas quoted in Politico

Arizona election workers watch for potential AI attacks. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer quoted in Courthouse News Service

McCain Institute panel addresses the role AI could play — and is playing — in this year’s election. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer quoted in KJZZ

La Moldavie, terrain d’essai de l’ingérence russe en Europe (Moldova, testing ground for Russian interference in Europe). Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas quoted in Le Figaro

Може ли руската дезинформация да спечели изборите в САЩ – От деня (Can Russian Disinformation win the US Election). Senior Fellow Bret Schafer quoted in BNR

“We haven’t seen a bunch of [AI-generated content] materialize yet, but what we do know is that the capacity and capability of not only speeding up the bad information but making it go broader and deeper than we can do it without these tools—that, I think, is the real threat.”

—Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, during an event on AI and elections co-sponsored by ASD and the McCain Institute in Phoenix, Arizona on October 17.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.