Securing Democracy Dispatch

After the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, Russia floated conspiracy theories about Ukrainian involvement, Iran amplified false narratives from the American left and right alike, but the PRC engaged in limited coverage. Find out more in Senior Fellow Bret Schafer, Research Assistant Krystyna Sikora, and Investigative Data and Research Analyst Peter Benzoni’s latest Hamilton 2.0 analysis.

Foreign interference may not have impacted EU election results, but Russia and the PRC had a pernicious effect on democratic processes and institutions through disinformation and malign finance, Research Analyst Etienne Soula writes.

American policymakers and voters should not ignore lessons from recent elections in the EU, including the need to address voter discontent and take swift action against foreign interference, Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson and Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas write for GMF.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Biden Exits the Race: Echoing conspiracy theories from the US ecosystem, Russian state media outlets suggested that US President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race was a “democratic coup” and questioned whether Biden was “forced” to make the decision under a threat from senior Democrats to invoke the 25th Amendment. Russian propagandists also amplified false speculation that Biden is dead. Sputnik Iran, Moscow24, RT Deutsch, and Lenta.RU underscored Biden’s absence from the public spotlight and amplified demands from some on the right to see “proof” that he is alive. At a minimum, Sputnik claimed that Biden’s withdrawal is proof that the US government is not currently being run by Biden but by an “unelected group of handlers”.
• Attacks on Kamala Harris: Once US Vice President Kamala Harris was announced as the presumptive nominee to replace Biden, Kremlin-affiliated accounts portrayed her as “unpopular,” “inarticulate”, and prone to “lapses”. Russian propagandists predicted Trump’s victory over Harris and amplified former US President Donald Trump’s remarks that “Kamala will be easier to beat than Biden”. Several Russian-affiliated accounts tried to link Harris to the “deep state”, amplifying a comment by Elon Musk suggesting that she is a “puppet” to the Soros family. Sputnik also predicted that Harris would “uphold Russophobic US dogma” in her approach to foreign policy.

The PRC’s diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week: 

• From Biden to Harris: PRC coverage of Biden’s resignation and Harris’ candidacy was largely factual and far less editorialized than coverage provided by state-linked accounts from Iran and Russia. The Global Times referred to the changing of the guard as a “pragmatic and rational approach”.  However, state-affiliated accounts also used the news to claim that it is evidence that the United States is facing a “upending of its political system” and that Biden’s exit reflects “typical US money politics”.  
• US-Japan Relations: PRC state media accounts blasted Japan for seeking US nuclear protection for what the PRC described as “self-invented” security threats from Russia and the PRC. The Global Times claimed that Japan was breaking its Three Non-Nuclear Principles” and placing itself at “nuclear risk”. Perhaps to drive a wedge between the partners, Xinhua highlighted “US military sex crime cases” in Japan and opinion outlet T House questioned whether Japan’s government was “for Japan or [the United States]” for allegedly “keep[ing] secret” news of the leak of tainted water at a US base in Japan. 

State election officials reject claims that Harris cannot replace Biden on ballots: Election officials in several states—including New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Georgia—affirmed that US Vice President Kamala Harris can replace President Joe Biden on 2024 presidential election ballots after he withdrew from the race in response to false claims that the deadline to name a different nominee has passed and a push among some Republicans to mount legal challenges. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson told the Dispatch, “This is an incredibly unusual set of circumstances for nominating a presidential candidate—of course, questions should be asked and the tires should be kicked. The fact that Biden stepped down before the Democratic Convention, when candidates officially become the party’s nominee, makes this a simpler process than it would have been post-convention. Most secretaries of state have confirmed that Harris can appear on their states’ ballots should she be nominated in August and answered questions with a resounding ‘we will be ready’. Good-faith questions are one thing, but I will also be watching for the potential weaponization of this ballot narrative to further undermine trust in our system and potentially the legitimacy of a Harris win.”

Fake Harris content surge on TikTok, X: Misleading or manipulated posts claiming to depict Harris have surged on social media, including a video—suspected of being altered using artificial intelligence (AI)—that received millions of views on TikTok of Harris speaking gibberish and an image alleging to be evidence of Harris being a sex worker that received more than 627,000 views on X. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer said, “Once Harris became the presumptive nominee, it was inevitable that she would also assume a leading role in a range of online conspiracy theories and smear campaigns meant to damage her candidacy. Unfortunately, it was also inevitable that many of those attacks would be racist and/or misogynistic, which speaks to the unique challenges that women of color face when they enter public life or, in the case of Harris, assume a more prominent role at the top of a ticket.”

In Case You Missed It

• Pennsylvania established a hotline for election officials and voters to report various offenses at the polls, including threats of physical violence or voter intimidation.
• The US Department of Treasury sanctioned the leaders of a Russian hacking group that compromised Texas’ water infrastructure in January.
• Popular AI chatbots struggled to report accurate information following recent breaking news in US politics, including Trump’s attempted assassination and Biden testing positive for COVID-19, according to the Washington Post.
• At least 270 prominent Ukrainian Telegram channels were hacked to spread pro-Kremlin propaganda using a Russian-owned post scheduling and automatic response service.
• Hungary’s government borrowed one billion euros in loans from three Chinese banks amid high public debt, a Hungarian business publication reported.

Russia increasing efforts to spread disinformation online. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer interviewed on CBS News

Trump’s nomination prompts foreign diplomats to make nice. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson quoted in The Hill

The Far Right is Out—So Far | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org). Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas and Zsuzsanna Végh write in GMF

Russia, Iran And China Spread Misinformation Over Trump Shooting. ASD research/“American Democracy in the Crosshairs” cited in Forbes

Malign Interference and Crypto: Report Preview. ASD research/Senior Fellow Bret Schafer cited in Chainalysis

“Without having safe and secure elections, we don’t have a democracy. And so it really is the front line of the fight to preserve democracy.”

—Josh Zygielbaum, clerk and recorder for Adams County, Colo., in comments to ABC News about recent threats to election workers

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.