Securing Democracy Dispatch

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Predicting Zelenskyy’s Alleged Demise: Russian state media lifted the voices of a cadre of former US officials turned Russian state-media commentators to push a narrative that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s “days in power are numbered”. Lawrence Wilkerson, a former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, told Sputnik News that when Zelenskyy loses the support of the “Nazis and oligarchs around him, he’ll either run off to one of his villas abroad or be killed”, which Wilkerson predicted would happen by Christmas. Sputnik also amplified an interview in which ex-Pentagon official Douglas Macgregor claimed that Zelenskyy is “determined to kill as many Ukrainian Christians as he can”. RT tweeted a snippet of a different interview featuring Macgregor. This time, the former US colonel suggested that Zelenskyy may soon “vanish…to set up a separate government in Poland”. On the other side of the debate, RT ran a segment from a speech in which former US President Joe Biden criticized current US President Donald Trump’s bailout of Argentina. RT claimed this bailout amounted to “11% of what [Biden] gave Zelensky[y] officials’ mistresses to buy Bentleys”.
• Attacks on Israel: Several of Russian state media’s most-engaged-with posts elevated positions and content portraying Israel, and its prime minister, Benjamin Netenyahu, unfavorably. The most liked and retweeted state-media tweet of the past week featured a speech by an opposition member of the Knesset blaming Netanyahu for the October 7, 2023 massacre and accusing him of prioritizing his own political and legal troubles over the fate of Israeli hostages. Another RT tweet that ranked among the most liked and retweeted posts of the past week showed a video of Israeli Minister of National Security Ben Gvir passing out treats to members of the Knesset after they passed a bill that, according to RT, would allow Israel to “execute Palestinian detainees”. State media also covered Trump’s letter to Israeli President Isaac Herzog urging him to pardon Netanyahu in his longstanding corruption case as well as Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapip’s reaction. Lapip warned the United States to stop treating Israel as an “American protectorate” and “to stop interfering in this matter”.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Anger at Japan: On November 10, the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ (MFA) spokesperson opened their daily press conference by attacking the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi over her commitment to deploy the Japanese military if Beijing attacked Taiwan. While CGTN and Xinhua simply relayed the MFA’s condemnation, China Daily wondered whether Tokyo was trying to “obstruct China’s reunification” and the Global Times not so subtly referred to World War II when asking whether Japan was “attempting to repeat its past mistakes.” Commentators affiliated with PRC state media warned that Japan would be beheaded or “totally crushed” should it go ahead with its planned support to Taiwan.
• Three-Carrier Era: Last week, PRC diplomats and state-media outlets hailed the commissioning of their country’s third aircraft carrier. Several outlets covered PRC leader Xi Jinping’s visit on the new vessel and vaunted the advanced technology that went into the ship’s capabilities. China Daily explained that the carrier’s arrival marked the beginning of a “three-carrier era” and called for “global attention” to the warning it constituted for “Taiwan independence forces.” One pro-PRC commentator predicted that the carrier would help “resolve the Taiwan issue more reliably” while the Consul General to Osaka, Japan implied that the new weapon was a rebuke of Takaichi’s statement in support of military assistance to the island.

Iranian diplomats and state media focused on one main narrative this week:

• Nuclear Weapons Testing: Last week, Iranian state messengers focused on Trump’s announcement that the United States will resume nuclear testing. In a letter to the UN President and Secretary-General of the Conference on Disarmament, Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations expressed grave concern over the United States’ resumption of nuclear weapons testing, claiming it undermines the Treaty on Non-Proliferation and the Vienna Convention of 1969. Iranian state media echoed Tehran’s official stance and tried to portray the United States as an aggressor. The Iranian Students’ News Agency, a state-controlled outlet, reposted a photo that supposedly captured a nuclear missile on a test flight. An analyst on Press TV insisted that Trump’s directive to resume nuclear tests is not a “bluff” but a real strategy that will be implemented “regardless of the potential consequences”. Other state outlets amplified Russia’s warnings that they will conduct reciprocal testing, with IRNA News Agency predicting a “new crisis” after a three-decade moratorium on nuclear testing. In contrast, Iranian officials unsurprisingly portrayed their own nuclear industry as “peaceful” and vowed Tehran will not give up its nuclear rights.

European Commission announces effort to protect EU democracies: The European Commission unveiled its European Democracy Shield, an effort to strengthen the EU’s democratic resilience. Its chief initiative, the European Centre for Democratic Resilience, will facilitate information sharing among member states about threats from information manipulation and expand dialogue with civil society, researchers, and media, but EU member states will not be required to participate. Acting Manager for Europe and Fellow Etienne Soula writes, “The European Centre for Democratic Resilience’s founding is a strong step toward boosting the EU’s collective ability to counter foreign interference. But to be truly effective, the effort must widen its lens beyond information manipulation to include tools like malign finance and economic coercion, confront the platforms’ spotty compliance with European regulations more directly, and match its global ambitions with clearer support for pro-democracy actors beyond the European continent.”

US congressional committee asks OpenAI for emails with foreign governments: US House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan sent a subpoena to OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman last week, demanding that the AI company turn over communications with foreign governments about content moderation, alleging regulatory efforts in places like the EU, the United Kingdom, and Brazil amount to “censorship” of American voices online. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer tells the Dispatch, “The question of whether foreign governments are exerting undue influence over the content moderation decisions of US tech companies is a legitimate one. However, this committee, once again, is focused on attacking US allies’ democratically passed tech regulations rather than on countering actual authoritarian influence. While there are some points of concern with such regulation in Europe, the claim that those regulations exist to censor American speech misrepresents both the letter and the spirit of those laws.”

In case you missed it

• Russian influence networks have pushed 18 false claims online about Armenia’s Western-leaning government ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections, according to a NewsGuard investigation. These posts have received 45 million views across 11 social-media sites and eight languages, and some AI chatbots have even cited one of these false claims that a French company is dumping nuclear waste in Armenia.
• The European Commission is considering strengthening regulations to compel EU member states to phase out equipment from Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE in their telecommunications networks, according to Bloomberg.
• US forces participated in a wargaming exercise off Sweden’s coast that focused on disrupting Russian sabotage efforts in the Baltic Sea.
• Australia’s top intelligence official warned that PRC-linked hackers have been probing Australian critical infrastructure and telecommunications networks—and have infiltrated some of it—in preparation for sabotage and espionage campaigns.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.