Securing Democracy Dispatch

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• US Sanctions Against Russian Oil Companies: Russian officials and state media outlets condemned US sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft, two Russian oil companies, and threatened a reciprocal response against the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that these sanctions “will not significantly affect the economic well-being of Russia” yet warned that “[oil] prices will surge” across the world, including in the United States. TASS cited European Commission Spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, who cautioned that these sanctions may “partially affect” the EU’s energy security. Putin also denounced sanctions as an “attempt to pressure Russia” and emphasized that “no self-respecting country ever decides anything under pressure”. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that new US sanctions “complicate the rehabilitation” of bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington. Russia’s special economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev visited the United States and declared that potential for economic cooperation between the two countries will remain “only if there is respectful consideration of Moscow’s interests”.
• Russia’s New Missile: Russian propaganda outlets touted Russia’s new missile, named Burevestnik (Russian for “storm petrel”, a bird known for flying long distances), lauding its purportedly unique and unrivaled features. Putin announced a successful test of this nuclear-powered cruise missile built to “fly for days, circle the planet, and strike from any direction”. Russia’s First Deputy Minister of Defense Valery Gerasimov elaborated that it has an “infinite and indefinite range” and “can overcome any missile defense system”. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov quipped that “everyone has quieted down” since the announcement and Sputnik News described Burevestnik’s development as a reaction to the US pullout from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Trump in Asia: PRC coverage of the meeting between PRC leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump was almost exclusively focused on Beijing’s perspective. PRC diplomats in countries including the United States, India, and Colombia, as well as state-media outlets, quoted only Xi’s statements. The few posts that quoted Trump relayed his faith in both countries having “a fantastic relationship for a long period of time” or shared his quips about Xi being “a tough negotiator”. PRC messaging also highlighted the cordial handshake and “whisper” between the leaders as they departed. PRC state media covered Trump’s other stops in Asia this past week, noting the gifts Trump received, including a “gold-leaf golf ball” in Japan and an “actual crown” in South Korea. PRC state media outlets also poked fun at Trump’s dancing in Malaysia and mocked his breach of protocol when he failed to salute the flag in Japan. CGTN Europe drew attention to anti-Trump protests in South Korea and in Malaysia. Finally, Phoenix TV interpreted Trump’s remarks to his Korean counterpart, Lee Jae-myung, to argue that meeting Xi was the “real focus of [Trump’s] visit”. 
• US Shutdown: Last week, PRC state media broadcast many stories about the consequences of the ongoing US government shutdown. CGTN warned of “thousands of US flights” being delayed, with the Global Times commenting that the shutdown was “clipping the wings of America’s aviation industry”. PRC messaging explained that “laid-off federal workers are turning to food banks” and stated that “more than 40 million Americans are at risk of losing nutrition assistance.” CGTN America described mounting “US public frustration” and remarked that the shutdown laid bare “deep divisions” in the country. PRC state media quoted US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who worried that the shutdown would do damage to the US economy’s “muscle” and relayed the news that a European credit agency has downgraded the United States’ credit rating.

Iranian diplomats and state media focused on one main narrative this week:

• Gaza Ceasefire: Iranian state messengers continued to focus on the fragile ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, dedicating significant coverage to Israel’s renewed airstrikes on Gaza this week. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the attack as a flagrant violation of the ceasefire agreement. They also claimed it indicates Tel Aviv’s “deliberate intent” to pursue genocide. Iranian state media dismissed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s claims that Israel’s strikes did not violate the ceasefire, amplified footage of the strike’s destruction, and emphasized its death toll, notably paying homage to the child victims. Several news outlets also hinted at the United States’ complicity. Iran’s Spanish-language outlet, HispanTV, circulated a short video accusing Trump of helping Israel cover up its alleged crimes in Gaza. Press TV similarly posted a photo showing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump holding hands in solidarity alongside a caption claiming the two coordinated Israel’s recent attacks on Gaza. 

Leading chatbots cite Russian-linked sources to respond to Ukraine-war inquiries: Leading chatbots—ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and DeepSeek—responded to questions about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine across four languages by citing Russian state-linked sources nearly one-fifth of the time, an Institute for Strategic Dialogue investigation finds. Of the four chatbots, ChatGPT cited these sources the most. Senior Investigative Research Officer Peter Benzoni says, “Somehow, when studying large language models (LLM), researchers often magically forget everything they were taught about sample sizes and causal inference, a pitfall this sober report deftly avoids with excellent methodology. It demonstrates the significant and real success propagandists are having poisoning the well, without hyperbole or aggrandizement. Unlike much of the black-box nature of LLMs, this is an easily solvable problem. LLMs retrieve these sources, which they then process into a response, using a process called Retrieval Augmented Generation, or RAG. This entails running a bunch of Google (or other engine) searches in the background. Companies could assemble a list of domains, and via RAG, annotate the source as propaganda—a process these companies are likely already doing to deal with adult or other sensitive content.”

In case you missed it

• Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė accused Belarus and Russia of a “deliberate escalation of hybrid warfare” after dozens of helium balloons carrying contraband cigarettes entered Lithuania’s airspace from Belarus. Lithuania closed its border with Belarus as a result. 
• Russia is recruiting and paying “low-level agents” across Europe to conduct acts of sabotage in Germany—including photographing military sites and starting fires—via Telegram and other social-media platforms, according to Germany’s intelligence chief.
• Radio Free Asia will suspend operations and lay off its furloughed staff amid funding cuts and the US government shutdown.
• The US Federal Communications Commission voted unanimously to tighten rules on importing sensitive telecommunications gear into the United States, expanding restrictions on mainly Chinese companies considered a national-security risk.
• Dutch companies remain ill-equipped to counter cyber or hybrid attacks on critical infrastructure as the Netherlands becomes a higher-profile target for Russia and China, intelligence experts warned.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.