Securing Democracy Dispatch

From potential false narratives that erode faith in US election integrity to the role of the US intelligence community to the possible memes that could shape online discussion, ASD at GMF experts share what they are watching closely as the US election nears in our latest “What to Watch”.

ASD updated its Hamilton 2.0 Dashboard to include new data on US foreign adversaries’ online messaging across X, Telegram, TikTok, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. Explore the dashboard here!

Influencers have a unique role in shaping the information space. ASD and the Cyber Collective developed a resource with tips to help content creators protect themselves and their audiences from spreading false information about the US elections. See the resource here!

Democrats and Republicans have discussed “democracy” and threats to it throughout the 2024 election cycle—but “in starkly different terms that reflect broader partisan divides”, Investigative Data and Research Analyst Peter Benzoni and Senior Fellow Bret Schafer found in an analysis of candidates’ social media posts.

Differences in how elections are run across states are focal points for false narratives that question the integrity of US elections, especially in battleground states. Research Assistant Krystyna Sikora broke down election administration procedures in the key swing states that could be manipulated to question the legitimacy of this year’s election.

Despite national security concerns, 2024 US House, US Senate, gubernatorial, and secretary of state races continued to campaign on TikTok. A joint ASD-GMF Tech report examines their use of the platform. Read more in the full report and at the Washington Post.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Georgian Elections: Russian state media discussed the results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia last week by calling out supposed EU hypocrisy, speculating about a possible color revolution, and accusing the United States and Ukraine of meddling. Sputnik Brazil cited the words of Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, who criticized supposed EU double standards. Responding to Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili’s claim that that the elections were illegitimate, RT India cited another EU politician, Polish President Andrzej Duda, who shared in an interview with Polish Radio ZET that Zourabichvili reportedly told him that she had seen “zero evidence of alleged Russian meddling”. RIA Novosti also warned about “snipers from Ukraine” who arrived in Georgia to organize provocations during the protests.
• Ukraine: The situation in the Bryansk region in Russia attracted Russian state media’s attention, with outlets aiming to demonstrate that the situation is under control and that foreign mercenaries were to blame for repeated drone attacks. On October 28, RIA Novosti published a video, shot by the FSB, with four alleged “foreign saboteurs”, along with weapons, ammunition, and “two Canadian flags”. Sputnik claimed that there was enough ammunition “to level a small city”. Other messages described one of the saboteurs as having a tattoo of the US 75th Ranger Regiment, another as being a part of the US Marine Corps, and yet another as possessing a Polish prayer card. Throughout the week, Russian news agencies routinely reported on destroyed Ukrainian drones in the Bryansk region, likely suggesting heightened military activity there, though RT commentators dismissed the possible threat.  

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week: 

• BRICS Summit: The 16th BRICS Summit ended on October 24, but PRC diplomats and state media continued to promote the convening in the days that followed. They highlighted PRC leader Xi Jinping’s contribution, notably via play–by–play recaps of his speech to the grouping. They also propped up foreign voices praising the BRICS, including former British member of Parliament and former Sputnik News contributor George Galloway, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and Indian President Narendra Modi. PRC accounts also promoted Russia, with the PRC’s ambassador to Colombia amplifying a South African article hailing Russia as “the fourth largest economy” and CGTN Europe relaying Russian President Vladimir Putin’s accusations that the United States and Europe “manipulated global markets during the pandemic”.
• North Koreans in Russia: PRC messaging reacted in a subdued manner to news of North Korean soldiers training in Russia. On October 24, 25, 29, and 30, the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave brief answers to media questions about this development. Not only did PRC diplomats avoid mentioning the issue entirely, but state media outlets also covered it in a very limited way. Across all monitored platforms, CGTN Europe focused mainly on NATO’s confirmation that the soldiers had been deployed in Russia and on US officials’ warnings that the North Koreans would be seen as legitimate military targets if they fought in Ukraine. On X, some state media commentators sought to minimize the PRC’s influence over Russia and North Korea.

Russian actors behind fake video depicting destruction of mail-in ballots for Trump: Russian actors “manufactured and amplified” a viral video that purported to show someone destroying mail-in ballots from Bucks County, Pennsylvania that were marked for former president Donald Trump, according to a US intelligence community statement. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer told the Dispatch, “This case is unique only in that it is a somewhat rare instance when Russia was the originator, rather than an amplifier, of a politically divisive campaign targeting Americans’ faith in the administration and security of their country’s elections. But it clearly suggests that Russia is already shifting its focus from attempting to influence the outcome of the election to attempting to undermine Americans’ confidence in the results.”

Ballot drop boxes set on fire in two states raise alarm about extremism as Election Day approaches: Ballot drop boxes in two states were targeted in suspected arson attacks—in Vancouver, Washington, hundreds of mail-in ballots were destroyed, while a drop box fire suppression system saved all but three ballots in Portland, Oregon—amid US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) warnings that the US election faces rising threats from extremism motivated by election conspiracy theories. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson said, “In the United States, we go to the ballot box and cast our vote to make change; we shouldn’t destroy the literal boxes that make voting possible for some. These drop box fires are concerning and speak to the complexity and intensity of the broader election threat environment. Election officials and law enforcement reacted quickly and are proceeding transparently, with election officials decreasing time between drop box pickup and working to ensure all impacted voters can cast a ballot. All Americans need to stay alert and patient heading into next week.” 

Georgian election irregularities draw international calls for investigation: Georgia’s parliamentary election this past weekend was marred by vote buying, intimidation and violence at polling stations, and irregularities in vote counting, according to international observers, prompting calls from US President Joe Biden and top EU diplomats for investigations. Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas said, “This is merely the epilogue to an increasingly polarizing campaign. In recent months, the Georgian Dream government took extensive measures to bolster its electoral fortunes, as it gradually aligned its modus operandi with Russia’s strategic interests for Georgia. These included passing a Foreign Agents Law clearly intended to stifle Georgia’s civil society, attempting to suppress civic and political opposition, and promoting Russia-aligned information narratives designed to stoke fear. Now, in its attempt to reinforce its legitimacy following an election that was marred by serious accusations of vote rigging and voter intimidation, the ruling party also benefited from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s congratulatory message on election night—even before the Electoral Commission had released any results—and his subsequent visit in the country, while Hungary still holds the presidency of the Council of the EU. This clearly does not represent the EU position, but as a tactic, it showed a clear effort to control and anchor the information narrative.”

In Case You Missed It

• The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency launched a new election threats webpage to inform the public about risks to the US election process, including foreign interference and cyberattacks, just a week before the November 5 election.
• An internal DHS document assessed that for-profit cyber criminals pose a greater threat to US election infrastructure than foreign adversaries.
• A network of accounts on X is claiming to be foreign citizens who illegally voted in the US election, posting pictures of completed ballots next to images of foreign passports, some of which are from countries that no longer exist, according to the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.
• Russia, the PRC, and Cuba disseminated false narratives online about US hurricane relief efforts, including amplifying images generated by artificial intelligence (AI), according to a US official.
• 45% of voters believe American democracy does not do a good job representing average Americans and 76% feel it is under threat, a New York Times Times/Siena College poll found.
• Republican accounts on X have experienced drastic spikes in follower counts and received billions more views than their Democratic counterparts under Elon Musk’s ownership, according to the Washington Post.

How is US democracy faring? Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson interviewed on Monocle

Brussels, my love? Migrant return hubs – solution or scandal? Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas interviewed on Euronews

From Russia with hate. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer quoted in The Minnesota Star Tribune

As AI threatens election security, the search for solutions takes on new urgency. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer quoted in City & State Pennsylvania

Disinformation Nation: Kremlin operation in the UK tipped off US months after election warning. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer quoted in WTOP News

AI spreads false election information in Pennsylvania. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer quoted in Technical.ly

Projected winner of White House race might not be clear on election night: AP decision desk chief. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson quoted in Just the News

Russia-linked media outlets amplify conspiracies about US election rule changes. ASD research/“Securing Democracy Dispatch” cited in DFRLab

“We’re not a group that’s just going to let them walk all over us like that. People can vote for who[m]ever they want to vote for, but don’t lie.”

—Sister Diane Cook of the Benedictine Sisters of Erie, Pennsylvania, in a CNN article published on October 25, after an organizer claimed that 53 voters registered to a Catholic church were evidence of voter fraud despite the nuns’ residence there.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.