Securing Democracy Dispatch

ASD is going to Phoenix, Arizona! ASD and the McCain Institute will hold a conversation about artificial intelligence’s (AI) impact on the 2024 US elections, featuring Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates on Thursday, October 17 at 5:30 pm MT/8:30 pm EST. Register to join us in person or online here!

Reproductive rights, conflict in the Middle East, student debt relief, and inflation have been front and center in US election debates thus far, but are just a fraction of what is on voters’ minds heading into the 2024 US presidential election. Join GMF for a webinar deciphering what issues are driving voters to the polls, moderated by ASD Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson on Wednesday, October 23 at 9:00 am EST. Register to watch here!

Since foreign interference entered the public’s consciousness about eight years ago, a growing number of authoritarian actors has adopted new technology and techniques to target democratic societies. Senior Manager for Europe Vassilis Ntousas and Co-Managing Director David Salvo take stock of how this threat has evolved since 2016 in ASD’s latest report.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s speech criticizing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stood out because of its bluntness, but also for its emphasis on how Hungary’s close relationship with Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) abets their interference in the EU, Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas wrote on X.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Ukraine: Russian state media last week attempted to demonstrate the military might of Russian forces in combating Western weapons. One headline claimed that the Russian Iskander-M missile system destroyed a NATO munitions ship in the port of Yuzhny near Odesa on October 6th. To support the claim, state media shared a video posted on the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Telegram channel. Notably, the original Russian text in the post stated that the attacked ship delivered ammunition from Europe, without describing the vessel as belonging to NATO. Other headlines announced that Russia seized NATO weapons in eastern Ukraine and destroyed an Israeli-made multifunctional radar and a German-made Leopard tank. These headlines, which originally appeared in the Spanish-language services of RT and Sputnik, spread to other Spanish language news websites and social media accounts that target audiences in Latin America.
• Nord Stream: Russian officials argued last week that they have proof of direct US and UK involvement in the Nord Stream gas pipeline blast in 2022. The allegations started on October 3, with an RT investigation titled “Deep Terrorism”. The report cited a Russian navy intelligence veteran who stated that the US Navy was at the scene of the crime shortly before the pipeline was destroyed. The next day at the United Nations (UN) Security Council, Russian Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia declared that there will be no cooperation among global players until the truth about the Nord Stream attack is established. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service head, Sergey Naryshkin, similarly suggested that the United States justified destroying Nord Stream “to ensure that Europe, especially Germany, breaks away from Russia”. Meanwhile, RT show Going Underground claimed that Denmark’s newspaper Politiken reported that a harbor master of Chrisiansø island noticed two US Navy warships a few days before the Nord Stream explosion.

The PRC’s diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week: 

• US Hurricanes: Last week, PRC state media accounts extensively covered the fallout of Hurricane Helene in the United States. Coverage in several languages was mostly factual but emphasized the destruction, with very frequent updates on the death toll, as well as emphasis on shortages and long-term economic loss. CCTV posted a video showing locals complaining about the “government’s slow recovery efforts”, and the head of China Daily in Europe shared a tweet suggesting that the United States prioritized the war in the Middle East over the needs of its own citizens.
• War in the Middle East: PRC accounts continued to extensively cover developments in the Middle East, juxtaposing the PRC’s and the United States’ role in the conflict. On TikTok and X, state media outlets highlighted the PRC ambassador to the UN’s speech warning about the risk of “a full-scale war”. A CGTN reporter contrasted the ambassador’s statement with a US opinion piece calling for escalation in Iran. CGTN Europe also showed the US military shooting down missiles over Israel and the Lebanese Health Minister calling out countries “providing bombs” as well as aid. By contrast, PRC state media promoted Beijing’s plans for peace and highlighted PRC humanitarian aid to Lebanon. PRC diplomats and state media also amplified pro-Palestine voices and protests in North America and Europe.

Foreign adversaries eyeing post-election period to raise doubt in the outcome: US intelligence officials and lawmakers warned that foreign adversaries will use influence campaigns to question the validity of contested election results after Election Day to undermine Americans’ faith in their democracy, including by potentially disseminating AI-generated content portraying alleged vote tampering or other discrepancies. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer said, “While certain foreign threat actors certainly prefer one candidate over the other, they all, to varying degrees, benefit from the chaos that would result from a contested election. So if we once again see prominent Americans denying the results of the election, it seems almost inevitable that foreign adversaries will try to take advantage of that situation, especially because they’ve now had four years to prepare for it.” 

FEMA debunks false information about Hurricane Helene: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) launched a rumor response page to debunk rampant false information about the government’s response to Hurricane Helene that has flooded social media, including baseless claims that the Biden-Harris administration is withholding relief and that recovery aid has been diverted to support foreign conflicts and undocumented immigrants in the United States. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson told the Dispatch, “The false information campaigns around the Hurricane Helene relief efforts are remarkable for the speed at which they weaponized this natural disaster to foster division and distrust, as well as the complete disregard for unwritten political rules when it comes to relief efforts during a campaign. False narratives linking the disaster to the upcoming elections and voting sprung up quickly and could be used post-election to claim illegitimacy, prompting swift national pushback from FEMA and President Biden. Almost more importantly, North Carolinians—including the state’s Democratic governor, state media, and state Republicans like Congressman Chuck Edwards (N.C.-11)—worked within their own capacities to correct the disinformation, including this excellent ‘Reality Check’ by the Raleigh News & Observer.”

Russia, PRC, Cuba targeting US congressional, local races: US intelligence has concluded that foreign actors—including Russia, the PRC, and perhaps even Cuba—are targeting congressional and local races, boosting or denigrating candidates across party lines based on candidates’ views of national security matters. Research Analyst Etienne Soula said, “Authoritarian regimes worldwide are actively seeking ways to exploit the already intense polarization in the United States. This reflects a long-standing pattern in which Moscow and Beijing leverage information manipulation, malign finance, and other interference tactics to influence democratic voters in ways that align with Russian or PRC interests. This latest intelligence report reaffirms that these efforts persist, underscoring the need for the next US administration to take stronger measures that increase the costs for states that continuously undermine the rights and sovereignty of citizens in democratic countries.”

In Case You Missed It

• OpenAI disrupted more than 20 foreign operations that used its AI tools for information campaigns in the past year, including to generate content for fake personas on social media and write articles for websites.
• The US Department of Justice charged an Afghan national with ties to the Islamic State for allegedly planning a terrorist attack on Election Day.
• A network of at least 1,200 X pages, some of which have been active for as long as 15 years and are believed to be bot accounts, have amplified false narratives about US Vice President Kamala Harris and polarizing issues in the US election, a research group finds.
• Russian intelligence recruited an unidentified Irish lawmaker, who still holds a seat in parliament, to push anti-NATO narratives and inflame tensions between Ireland and the United Kingdom.
• Voters rated candidates whose campaign ads featured AI disclaimers less trustworthy and less appealing, a study from New York University’s Center on Technology Policy found.
• The European Parliament condemned Russian interference in Moldova ahead of its elections and referendum on pursuing EU membership this month; the European Commission also announced a €1.8 billion economic aid package for the country.

Justice Department airing details about foreign election interference. Co-Managing Director David Salvo quoted in Roll Call

Проект Кремля «Doppelganger» – попытка подрыва демократии в США и странах Запада (The Kremlin’s “Doppelganger” project is an attempt to undermine democracy in the United States and Western countries). Senior Fellow Bret Schafer interviewed on Russian Service of the Voice of America

“We know that in the next few weeks, voters will hear a variety of narratives about election administration and policies, and partisan actors across the political divide may look to sow doubts about the fairness, security, and sanctity of results. We are working to demonstrate that American voters can trust our elections. We urge states to resist putting into effect last-minute changes that will only create more confusion for voters. We urge voters to exercise our American privilege of casting a vote—and know that it will be counted fairly.”

—Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab, and Utah Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson, in an op-ed for National Review published on October 3.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.