Securing Democracy Dispatch

Microsoft and social media companies uncover influence campaigns from Iran, Russia: Last week, Microsoft announced it dismantled a phishing campaign by the Russian state-sponsored hacking group Fancy Bear (also known as APT28 or Strontium, and linked to Russia’s military intelligence agency GRU) targeting two conservative organizations, the Hudson Institute and the International Republican Institute. Separately, Facebook, Twitter, and Google removed hundreds of fake accounts associated with an apparent Iranian social media influence operation, as well as a number of accounts connected to the Russian government. Facebook removed 652 pages, groups, and accounts; Twitter suspended 284 accounts; and Google removed 39 YouTube channels, 6 blogs, and 13 Google+ accounts. The Russian activity focused on politics in Ukraine and Syria, including a connection to Inside Syria Media Center, a group that often spreads pro-Russian and pro-Assad content; Facebook linked the accounts to sources previously identified as connected to Russia’s GRU. Cybersecurity firm FireEye released a report on the suspected Iranian influence operation, which promoted “anti-Saudi, anti-Israeli, and pro-Palestinian themes,” and supported policies favorable to Iran. According to the report, the campaign targeted people in the United States, United Kingdom, Latin America, and the Middle East. Following the announcement, Senator Mark Warner (D-VA), Vice Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, issued a statement highlighting that Iran is “now following the Kremlin’s playbook from 2016” and that he had long said “that there’s no way the problem of social media manipulation is limited to a single troll farm in St. Petersburg, and that fact is now beyond a doubt.” In June, ASD’s Policy Blueprint for Countering Authoritarian Interference in Democracies highlighted that “Other authoritarian regimes … have already adopted and begun to deploy asymmetric tools for their own interference operations.” Executives from Facebook, Twitter, and Alphabet will testify before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence September 5. (Microsoft, Los Angeles Times, Facebook, Twitter, Google, FireEye, Warner.Senate.gov, Alliance for Securing Democracy)

Leaders in U.S. government and private sector grapple with election security: On August 22, Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen called for “verifiable and auditable” voting systems in all states by the 2020 presidential election. Meanwhile, according to a Yahoo News report, the White House requested that the Senate Rules Committee not proceed with marking up the bipartisan Secure Elections Act. The bill would implement a number of election security measures, notably granting DHS “primary responsibility within the Federal Government for sharing information about election cybersecurity incidents, threats, and vulnerabilities with Federal entities and with [state and local] election agencies.” In other news, former Facebook Chief Security Officer Alex Stamos published a piece recommending how the government can secure the midterm elections and the 2020 presidential election. He called on Congress to set “legal standards that address online disinformation,” the government to “reassess who in government is responsible for cybersecurity defense,” and on all 50 states to “build capabilities on election protection.” He also outlined a role for citizens: “Americans must demand that future attacks be rapidly investigated, that the relevant facts be disclosed publicly well before an election, and that the mighty financial and cyber weapons available to the president be utilized immediately to punish those responsible.” (The Hill, Yahoo News, Congress.gov, Lawfare Blog)

Some European countries announce efforts to wean themselves off Russian gas: In the wake of strong opposition to Nord Stream 2 from the United States, including from President Donald Trump, several European leaders indicated they would diversify their countries’ gas supply. U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said he agreed with President Trump, arguing that “… there is a contradiction between asking America to spend more as proportion of its GDP on defense and contributing to NATO and, at the same time, doing an economic deal with Russia that is going to mean Russia is richer and more able to spend money on weapons that could potentially be used in an offensive way.” Despite the German government’s formal support for Nord Stream 2, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Azerbaijan to discuss the development of the Southern Gas Corridor, which would provide Europe with an alternative to Russian natural gas. Finally, Minister of Economy and Infrastructure of Moldova Chiril Gaburici announced last week that Moldova is not planning to negotiate a new contract with Russian energy giant Gazprom for the supply of natural gas. Instead, Moldova will wait for the construction of the Ungheni-Chisinau pipeline, which will connect the country to the European gas market via Romania and break the country’s dependence on Russian gas imports. According to Gaburici, construction on the project will begin by the end of August. Moldova’s current gas contract expires at the end of 2019. (Reuters, Politico EU, Bloomberg, BalkanInsight)

Russian economy holds steady despite additional sanctions: On August 23, the Russian ruble fell to its lowest value since 2016 in anticipation of another round of U.S. sanctions. In response, the Russian Central Bank announced it would cease buying foreign currency reserves in an attempt to slow the downturn. The United States extended sanctions to one Russian and one Slovakian company that were found to have aided another Russian firm in circumventing sanctions. Additionally, the U.S. Senate Committees on Foreign Relations and on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs held simultaneous hearings with representatives of the Trump administration to discuss the administration’s Russia policy and the effectiveness of the current sanctions regime. Senators from both parties demanded further action, noting that the sanctions in place have not succeeded in changing the Kremlin’s behavior. Meanwhile, U.K. Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Jeremy Hunt called for the EU to impose harsher sanctions on Russia in response to the Skripal chemical weapons attack in Salisbury, England, while a new round of U.S. sanctions on Russia for the Skrpial attack took force August 27. As pressure on Russia continues to mount, The Washington Post’s Anton Troianovsky argued that while sanctions have not proven effective in crippling the Russian economy, they have forced the regime to trade long-term economic development for immediate stability. A poll by Pew Research Center revealed that eight out of ten Russians worry that Western sanctions are hurting their economy. (AP News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Moscow Times)

China bolsters domestic data collection capabilities as foreign nations push back: The MIT Technology Review released a report on China’s expanding use of data and tech, such as Artificial Intelligence and Internet surveillance, to secure domestic stability and combat dissent. Human rights organizations raised similar concerns over the scale and lack of transparency of China’s data gathering capabilities, as well as the Chinese government’s “willingness to export” its surveillance technology. On August 23, the BBC reported that Australia banned Chinese tech firms Huawei and ZTE from participating in developing its 5G market, citing security concerns. In compliance with Chinese law, both firms have a policy to open cooperation with Chinese national intelligence services. And China is experiencing pushback from Malaysian President Mahathir Mohamad who called for a halt to two Chinese development projects, citing unfair terms and a lack of concern over domestic sovereignty. (Technology Review, Human Rights Watch, AP News, New York Times, BBC)

ASD’s Laura Rosenberger was quoted by ABC affiliate WJLA News discussing strategies for spotting social media trolls. She suggests, “One of the predominant tactics we see right now from these Russian operations, is to try to be as incendiary as possible,” and that “They’ll often do things that will sort of overly prove their Americanness.” Above all, she recommended that social media users investigate the information they see on social media and look into its sources. “I personally don’t share anything online from someone I don’t personally know. That is my own policy,” she says.

ASD Senior Fellow Joshua Kirschenbaum and Adam Kline published a blogpost  on Russia’s use of private investment funds to expand influence in the United States. “As the United States continues to strengthen the financial system’s defenses against illicit influence, it is prudent to harden the highest-value priority targets first. Private investment firms are the smart place to start.”

ASD Social Media Analyst Bret Schafer was interviewed  by Salon to discuss claims by Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) that Russian hackers had breached electoral systems in Florida, which state officials have disputed. Schafer noted that this kind of mixed messaging “undermines the credibility of messaging in general … about election security.” He added that this kind of confusion works to Russia’s advantage, as “undermining the general trust and reliability is just as effective as actually getting in there and changing votes.”

Schafer was also interviewed by the Los Angeles Times, where he discussed China’s capacity to conduct influence operations on social media. While “China has the capacity to cause a lot more damage than Russia,” Schafer said, “we’re not seeing it directed at the U.S.” He also discussed some of the positive steps that social media companies are taking to address foreign interference on their platforms, specifically applauding the increased cooperation between Twitter and Facebook to tackle misinformation.

GMF Non-Resident Fellow Heidi Tworek was interviewed by NEWS 1130, where she discussed foreign influence operations on social media and proposed recommendations to defend against possible threats to Canada’s 2019 elections. Tworek emphasized that “this is not about government controlling the online space, censoring it, or curtailing free expression. Rather, it’s about figuring out how we foster free and fair participation in elections, where all Canadian citizens can have a chance to discuss.”

Accounts tracked by the Hamilton 68 Dashboard last week seized on domestic U.S. events to inflame tensions surrounding immigration. Pro-Kremlin accounts quickly latched on to the murder of 20-year old college student Mollie Tibbetts by an immigrant to the United States to spread divisive content. The accounts largely ignored other domestic news, including the verdict in the trial of Paul Manafort and the guilty plea from Trump attorney Michael Cohen. Instead, the pro-Kremlin network propelled hashtags such as “mollietibbetts,” “buildthatwall,” and “buildthedamnwall” to the top of the dashboard’s trending lists. This is not the first time that accounts tracked by Hamilton have seized on a domestic U.S. tragedy to amplify divisive content. In December 2017, pro-Kremlin accounts pounced on the not guilty verdict in the murder of Kate Steinle, who was shot and killed by an undocumented immigrant in San Francisco, to inflame discussion over immigration. Data released by researchers at Clemson University confirmed this trend, revealing that Russian Internet Research Agency accounts were actively tweeting on both sides of the immigration debate following the Steinle verdict. 

 “Our nation’s under attack. Not just by Russia, but other outside influences. They’re not knocking buildings down — they’re not killing people — but they’re trying to destroy our democracy.”

 – Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), August 21, 2018 

Russians do not believe that the Kremlin interfered in the U.S. election. A poll released by the Pew Research Center revealed that 71 percent of Russians do not believe that Putin’s government interfered in the 2016 U.S. elections, while just 15 percent responded that Russia did interfere. 85 percent of Russians reportedly believe that the United States interferes in other countries’ elections.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.