Securing Democracy Dispatch

It is hard to see “much that’s going to change the decision-making calculus in Moscow” about the war in Ukraine given that Russian President Vladimir Putin “sees cracks in Western unity” and that Russia’s “whole economy is propped up to fight this war”, Managing Director David Salvo tells Background Briefing with Ian Masters.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• US-Russia Summit: Russian officials and state media celebrated the upcoming meeting between the American and Russian presidents in Anchorage, Alaska, and warned about purported Ukrainian attempts to undermine the summit. Russia’s special economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, declared that Alaska was “born as Russian America” and suggested the two countries could become partners in environmental protection, infrastructure, and energy in the Arctic and beyond. Putin’s foreign-policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, confirmed that US and Russian economic interests intersect in Alaska and the Arctic. Lenta.ru anticipated the meeting would “bring hope and peace” along with “global security”. Meanwhile, Russian television presenter Vladimir Solovyov claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, together with European leaders, was trying to sabotage the summit. The Russian Ministry of Defense elaborated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have allegedly planned a provocative strike on residential areas in the Kharkiv region to “create a negative media backdrop”.
• BRICS vs. US Tariffs: Russian propaganda outlets promoted the solidarity of BRICS countries in the face of US tariffs. TASS proclaimed that Russia, India, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) can overcome US economic pressure through joint actions. It further noted that Russia and Brazil signed a memorandum to increase financial cooperation and withstand potential sanctions from the United States. RT en Español stated that the PRC and Brazil want to build “a fairer world” and “a more sustainable planet” by setting an example of solidarity and self-sufficiency among Global-South powers. Sputnik Brasil added that Brazil has strengthened military ties with the PRC to reduce its dependence on NATO and concluded that US tariffs are driving “unprecedented unity” among the BRICS countries. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova labeled US tariffs “a direct interference in national sovereignty” and emphasized that Russia would consistently expand cooperation with the Global South, particularly with the BRICS countries.

The PRC’s diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• US-Russia Summit: PRC messaging was lukewarm toward the upcoming Alaska summit. Xinhua explained that “prospects for a breakthrough appear uncertain”, a sentiment shared by the “Chinese experts” quoted in the Global Times. CGTN America highlighted that the meeting was “at the suggestion of the American side” and CGTN Europe relayed Trump’s certainty that he would know whether his Russian counterpart was genuine “within the first two minutes”, while Phoenix TV mocked Trump’s mix-up over the location of the meeting. CGTN Europe also amplified Zelenskyy’s uncompromising stance on his country’s territorial integrity, interviewing “frustrated” Ukrainians who had “sacrificed everything” and harbored “deep mistrust” over the summit. Meanwhile, the Global Times commented that Europe had “deep strategic anxiety” about the summit because “US policy (…) has further marginalized Europe.”
• US Tariffs: Last week, PRC diplomats and state media continued to attack US tariffs and to laud Beijing’s response to the policy. PRC messaging focused on India and Brazil, with Xinhua relaying New Delhi’s anger and quoting “an Indian foreign-affairs insider” as saying that “America cannot be trusted”. The Global Times predicted turbulence in US-India ties over the “US tariff stick” and explained that “India’s long-held illusion” about the relationship “has been shattered”. State media commentators hyped up Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming trip to China and the PRC ambassador to India highlighted his country’s openness to Brazilian coffee. CGTN Europe relayed the Brazilian leader’s words that US tariffs were the most “arbitrary action” his country had faced “in more than 200 years of bilateral relations” and the outlet’s French and Spanish arms amplified Brazil’s intention to coordinate with BRICS partners over the US trade measures.

Iranian diplomats and state media focused on one main narrative this week:

• UN Sanctions: Iranian officials and state media sharply responded to France, Germany, and the United Kingdom’s threat to restore UN sanctions by the end of August if there continues to be no concrete progress on a nuclear deal. Iran’s Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araghchi dismissed the snapback mechanism’s legitimacy, insisting the European Troika are not “real” members of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and threatening that its use will “destroy the path to diplomacy”. Araghchi also called Western sanctions a “crime against humanity” that kills over 500,000 people per year. The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Intelligence Office claimed that Israel is trying to “manipulate” European countries into adopting hostile measures against Iran under the snapback mechanism. Press TV called the three European countries “bullying powers” but questioned the efficacy of the snapback, claiming that the restoration of sanctions will be insignificant because of Iran’s considerable gold reserves. 

Pro-Kremlin accounts spread false claim of UK military officers’ capture in Ukraine: Pro-Kremlin accounts on X and Telegram, as well as several ostensibly legitimate news websites, have been spreading a false story that three UK military officers were captured in a Russian raid on a Ukrainian naval base, using images generated by artificial intelligence (AI) to depict the officers and alleging that the United Kingdom claimed the officers were merely tourists. Managing Director David Salvo writes, “Despite all the advances in AI, some pieces of AI-generated content are still so clownish that they are easily debunked. This ridiculous information operation, which originated with the Pravda network and other pro-Kremlin accounts, fits that bill. But its ridiculousness is almost beside the point. The story spread in Western Europe, boosted by people—including former, and largely discredited, politicians—with large online followings. And it was reposted by so many fringe sites that it seems reasonable to conclude the amplifiers wanted to flood the zone, manipulating search results so that the story would appear closer to the top of search results—and therefore, be more convincing to the average searcher.”

In Case You Missed It

• Serbia’s government is dramatically expanding its advanced surveillance system through the purchase of Huawei technology, including facial and license-plate recognition technology, according to leaked documents.
• The US Federal Communications Commission strengthened rules to exclude firms linked to US foreign adversaries from obtaining licenses to build undersea cables.
• Finnish prosecutors charged members of Russia’s shadow fleet with sabotage for allegedly cutting five cables in the Baltic Sea last December.

Russia holds some of the most resource-rich Ukrainian areas amid land swap talks. Managing Director David Salvo quoted in Fox News

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.