Securing Democracy Dispatch

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Tomahawk Missiles for Ukraine: Russian officials strongly denounced news of a possible transfer of US Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the use of these weapons without the US military’s direct participation would be impossible and warned that their delivery would mark another phase of escalation between Russia and the United States. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova blamed Ukraine for plotting terror attacks against Russia with Tomahawks and accused the West of “deliberately prolonging the conflict”. Alexey Zhuravlev, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, claimed that Russia’s S-350 air defense system was created to specifically counter Tomahawks, yet he speculated that Ukraine’s armed forces might attach nuclear warheads to these missiles. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev added that the supply of these missiles to Ukraine “could end badly for everyone”, while Russia’s main ally, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, concluded that possible escalation might lead to “a nuclear war”.
• Israel-Hamas Peace Deal: Russian officials and state media predicted a short-lived peace in the Middle East and criticized the West for not promoting a full-fledged Palestinian state. Medvedev forecasted that the war would continue until a Palestinian state is established “in line with the well-known UN resolutions”. Zakharova echoed this conclusion, emphasizing that only implementation of the “two-state” formula would establish a “lasting and just peace” in the Middle East. Russian television propagandist Vladimir Solovyev claimed that [US President Donald] Trump promised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a position on a US tech giant’s board of directors. RT’s Going Underground also complained about the one-sided approach to disarming Hamas, suggesting that Israel should also disarm as “the ethno-state responsible for the first live-streamed genocide in history”.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• US-China Trade Tensions: PRC messaging pushed back strongly against Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariff on China in retaliation for Beijing’s new restrictions on rare-earths exports. PRC diplomats around the world, including in Canada, Iraq, Japan, Nigeria, the United Kingdom, the United Nations, and the United States shared the same defiant statements from their MFA that “China will do whatever is necessary to protect its legitimate rights and interests”. Meanwhile, state media outlets argued that PRC policies were strictly defensive and claimed the tariffs would cause “American families” to “face skyrocketing costs” for the upcoming holiday season. Pro-PRC commentators suggested that the rare-earths restrictions were causing a “sense of being strangled” in the United States and warned that Trump and “[US Secretary of Commerce Howard] Lutnick the Lunatic” were leading the United States to ruin.
• Gaza Ceasefire: PRC diplomats and state media appeared ambivalent about news of de-escalation in Gaza. As late as October 9, PRC state media stressed that military operations were still ongoing despite ceasefire talks. After the deal solidified, the MFA’s spokesperson welcomed “efforts conducive to restoring peace” while Foreign Minister Wang Yi deplored “the humanitarian disaster in Gaza” as “a stain on the 21st century”. CGTN Europe released contradictory statements from Netanyahu about his commitment to peace and continued to highlight the destruction in Gaza City. PRC messaging minimized Trump’s role in the peace process, focusing instead on protests during his speech in Egypt and his comments to other leaders, namely his inappropriate compliments of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Iranian diplomats and state media focused on one main narrative this week:

• Gaza Ceasefire: Iranian state messengers continued to focus on Trump’s peace deal and the ceasefire in Gaza. Iran’s MFA condemned Israel’s continued breaches of the ceasefire agreement. Press TV pundit David Miller mockingly claimed that the word ‘ceasefire’ does not exist in Hebrew and called the peace deal a “charade” that neither Israel nor Trump plans to uphold. IRNA claimed that the Israeli government is “afraid” of international media reentering Gaza after the two-year ban and exposing Israel’s crimes. Iranian officials and state media criticized Trump’s victory tour in the Middle East, in particular his speech to the Israeli Knesset. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denounced Trump’s allegations against Tehran and called out what he considered a double standard that he is hailed as a “president of peace” while provoking “endless WARS”. IRNA similarly posted a cartoon of Trump holding an Israeli flag in celebration in front of a missile disguised as a bald eagle with an olive branch in its mouth. Press TV alleged Trump was heckled during his Knesset speech and fact-checked all the “blatant lies” and “egregious distortions” he said during it. 

Russia using crypto to finance sabotage operations, Polish official says: Russia has been using cryptocurrency to pay individuals involved in kinetic operations in Europe and to prevent intelligence services from tracking payments, according to a senior Polish national-security official. Acting Manager for Europe and Fellow Etienne Soula writes, “This latest statement out of Poland highlights the dangerous evolution in Russia’s hybrid-warfare tactics. By turning to crypto, Moscow can evade sanctions and complicate law enforcement’s efforts to trace and disrupt its hostile activities. This goes hand in hand with the outsourcing of its kinetic operations to young, untrained, and hard-to-trace recruits after the EU expelled hundreds of Russia’s spies since 2022. Together, these trends expand the attack surface available to the Kremlin and lay the groundwork for it to conduct ever more disruptive kinetic operations in Europe.”

In case you missed it

• Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić confirmed that Russian nationals trained Moldovan and Romanian citizens at a complex in western Serbia this summer to carry out destabilizing actions ahead of Moldova’s recent parliamentary elections.
• Georgia’s ruling party invited 29 biased observers from various countries to monitor local elections earlier this month and parrot official talking points about the election’s fairness, according to the European Platform for Democratic Elections. Impartial international observers claimed government repression threatened the election’s fairness. 
• PRC hackers have infiltrated classified UK government computer systems for more than a decade, granting them access to information deemed “secret”, according to UK officials.
• A record number of “nationally significant” cyberattacks hit the United Kingdom last year, more than double the number in the prior 12 months, according to the country’s national cybersecurity agency.
• A European Commission spokesperson criticized Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó for slamming the EU’s energy policy at a conference in Moscow despite intensified EU efforts to phase out Russian energy supplies.

From Tinder to TikTok. GMF Visiting Fellow Nathaniel Myers and Senior Fellow Bret Schafer write for German Marshall Fund

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.