Securing Democracy Dispatch

Announcements

As devastating wildfires wreaked havoc in Los Angeles earlier this year, the Kremlin leveraged the tragedy to sow division and undermine trust in relief efforts. ASD Senior Fellow Bret Schafer and Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall will discuss how US foreign adversaries have increasingly directed information operations to target local American communities. Register here to tune in on Tuesday, June 24.

Our Takes

Following Israel’s strikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites, Iranian, Russian and Chinese state messengers united in their rhetoric to support Iran’s right to retaliate and to accuse the United States of being involved in the conflict, researchers Larissa Doroshenko, Krystyna Sikora, and Etienne Soula find in ASD’s new analysis.

Russian and Chinese influence actors seized on the anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles to denigrate the United States and exacerbate partisan divides, pushing narratives aimed at slandering protesters and US officials, and in some cases even promoting conspiracy theories to further stoke outrage, researchers Krystyna Sikora, Etienne Soula, and Peter Benzoni write for ASD.

Hamilton 2.0 Analysis

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

Israel-Iran Conflict: Russian officials and state media expressed support for Iran, accused the United States of helping Israel, and warned about nuclear escalation and an outbreak of World War 3 after Iran attacked Iranian nuclear and military targets. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) condemned Israeli attacks on Iran on the eve of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States and emphasized that these attacks pushed the world toward a “nuclear disaster”. Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN) Vasily Nebenzya declared that Israel’s attack was a gross violation of international law and stemmed from “anti-Iranian hysteria” in the UN Security Council. Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov concluded that President Donald Trump “had made fool of us” first by warning Israel President Benjamin Netanyahu against striking Iran and later calling the Israeli attack “the best thing for the market”. On RT’s Going Underground Jeffrey Sachs threatened that a war with Iran “ would be WW3” and reminded viewers that “Netanyahu had engaged the United States in six disastrous wars”.
G7 Summit: Russian propaganda outlets celebrated Trump’s advocacy for including Russia and China in future summits and praised the US decision to abstain from lowering the price cap on Russian oil and its refusal to sign a joint statement on Iran and Israel. Solovyov amplified Trump’s statement that criticized Russia’s exclusion from what was then the G8, calling it “a big mistake” that led to the war in Ukraine. TASS elaborated that Trump would understand if Moscow did not want to engage in dialogue with those countries responsible for its expulsion. Lenta.ru added that Trump was not opposed to China joining the grouping and emphasized the importance of a dialogue with Beijing. Prime news cautioned that other countries might still consider lowering the price cap on Russian oil, but noted that such a move would be ineffective without oversight from the United States.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

Israeli strikes on Iran: Last week, PRC messaging leaned clearly in Iran’s favor following Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets. In a statement viewed over 2 million times on TikTok, the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) denounced “actions that violate Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity”. The MFA highlighted Israel’s wrongdoings when relaying Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s call with his counterparts in both countries. The MFA implicitly directed a message to the United States by calling on “countries with special influence on Israel” to help deescalate, while CGTN relayed Iranian claims of evidence of US involvement in the strikes. Several state media outlets, notably CGTN America, covered Iran’s “retaliatory strikes” in response to Israel’s “unprovoked attack”. On X, the Consul General in Osaka shared a table comparing Israel with Nazi Germany.
Trade war: Most PRC diplomats and state media outlets were upbeat about the “professional, rational, in-depth and candid” negotiations, though a pro-PRC commentator (in a since deleted post) mocked President Trump’s announcement of an agreement between Beijing and Washington. PRC state media continued to amplify attacks on US tariffs, portraying them as the fraying of “the US-led liberal world order” and presenting the temporary truce as a US surrender in the face of “China’s dominance”. PRC diplomats and state media contrasted their country’s removal of trade barriers for 53 African countries with Trump’s policies and derogatory language toward the African continent.

News and Commentary

Russian influence operation uses AI to target French speakers in Africa: A covert information operation linked to the Russian news agency “African Initiative” used AI-based “malign techniques”—including employing AI to generate profile pictures and sensational posts for a bot network and to write articles for a faux news website posing as Niger-based outlet—to target French speaking audiences in West Africa, according to a new report by France’s Viginum agency. Research Analyst Etienne Soula tells the Dispatch, “Ever since Russia’s primary propaganda outlets were kicked out of the European Union in the aftermath of its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has pivoted a significant portion of its French-language content production toward Africa. In the Sahel, Moscow’s information operations infrastructure works hand-in-hand with its military support for juntas that are now in power in many of the region’s countries. At a time when the atrocities perpetrated by Russian mercenaries in West Africa are coming to light, this infrastructure is a critical component of the Kremlin to preserve its popular support in this part of the world.”

Poland’s presidential election faced “unprecedented” foreign interference: Poland’s presidential election last month was subject to “unprecedented” interference attempts by Russia and Belarus, including an influence operation linked to an EU-sanctioned Russian organization that employed around 400 fake accounts to push Kremlin propaganda, a campaign by a Belarussian state-run radio station that sought to discredit the election, and multiple foreign attacks to critical infrastructure. Research Analyst Krystyna Sikora says, “Given Poland’s role as one of Ukraine’s most crucial allies and a fortress on NATO’s eastern front, Russia’s glaring attempts to interfere in this consequential election—one many considered would decide Poland’s democratic future—are unsurprising. While there is no evidence that the Kremlin’s campaigns swayed the election results, the narrow victory of Karol Nawrocki—a nationalist conservative who has expressed greater Ukraine criticism—likely did play out in Moscow’s favor. As such, we can expect Russia to continue exploiting Poland’s deep political divides and growing resentment with the Ukraine war among certain segments of the population to weaken Polish unity.”

In Case You Missed It

Iranian state media has broadcast at least two images about the Israel-Iran conflict that were respectively unrelated to the developments or were created using AI; the Israeli military has also published old footage purporting to be from the recent attacks on their official account on X.
A Telegram channel falsely branding itself as “Euronews Romania” is spreading unfounded claims aimed at undermining pro-European governments in Romania and Moldova. Content on the imposter Telegram channel has been reposted on Russia’s Pravda network.
China has significantly expanded its radio programming in Asia, adding 26 new Tibetan and 16 new Uyghur language frequencies since the end of March, following cutbacks to Radio Free Asia.
In line with other technology platforms, Youtube has relaxed its content moderation guidelines to favor “freedom of expression”.