Securing Democracy Dispatch

US Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference strengthened Europe’s perception that the United States has begun meddling in its internal politics, which could “drive a wedge” of a magnitude greater than during previous periods of tension in the transatlantic alliance. “We’re certainly in uncharted waters”, Co-Managing Director David Salvo told DW News.

They brought a hammer when we needed a chisel. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson told Euronews that cutting US government spending has always been popular, but the abrupt and sweeping halt in USAID work put some important programs in limbo.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• US-Russia Negotiations: Russian state media celebrated negotiations between the United States and Russia last week. Sputnik Mundo declared Russia “the winner” in recent dialogue between Moscow and Washington. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the American side has begun to “better listen to Russia’s position” and that US President Donald Trump can remind other Western leaders “how real diplomacy works”. Sputnik Japan called expelling Russia from the G7 “a mistake” and RT wrote that Trump would “love” to bring Russia back to the world leaders’ table. RT en Español announced that Russia and the United States agreed to reinstate embassy staff in Moscow and Washington after Lavrov’s meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. As for Europe, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitri Medvedev claimed they were not part of the negotiations because they are “weak, ugly, and useless”.
• Munich Security Conference: Russian politicians used the Munich Security Conference to highlight the EU’s exclusion from the US-Russia negotiations. Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin described Vance’s speech as an “objective assessment” of the situation in Europe but added that Europe’s politicians did not want to hear the truth. Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya concluded that European politicians would not be “guarantors or even intermediaries” in “peace talks” about Ukraine and that their statements at the conference were “reckless, bellicose, and unrealistic”. TASS echoed this conclusion, claiming that the EU is “unequivocally in favor” of further escalation. TASS also amplified comments made by Elon Musk, who called the chairman of the conference, Christoph Heusgen, “pathetic”. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) spokesperson Maria Zakharova reminded Heusgen that it was Germany, not the Russian Federation, that started World War II. 

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week: 

• US-Russia Negotiations: PRC diplomats and state media were broadly supportive of negotiations between the United States and Russia. The PRC Ambassador to Colombia highlighted the US decision to exclude Europeans from the room, which CGTN Europe and China Daily further emphasized on TikTok and X. The PRC Permanent Representative to the United Nations, as well as the spokesperson for the PRC MFA, highlighted their country’s commitment to peace, while a pro-PRC commentator insisted that Chinese people would “never disrespect the Ukrainians”, unlike “these condescending, disrespectful MAGA clowns”. The Global Times explained that the Ukrainian government was well-disposed toward the PRC and “strictly abides by the one-China principle”.
• Munich Security Conference: PRC state media explained that the Munich Security Conference took place “amid strained transatlantic relations” and “rising fragmentation of the global environment”. By contrast, PRC messaging thought that “the Chinese delegation brought a warm breeze to Europe”. State media commentators relayed PRC Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi’s speech, highlighting his calls for a “multipolar world order” and his warnings to the United States. The PRC MFA shared a Xinhua analysis of Yi’s statement that Beijing should meet its rivals’ “arrogance or aggressiveness” with “calm”. PRC messaging also covered Vance’s “combative” speech and the “frustration” it caused Europeans, with the head of China Daily in Europe relishing in that irritation.

Pro-Russian hacking group targets Italy after diplomatic spat: A pro-Russian hacking group launched a series of cyberattacks against Italian websites—including those belonging to financial institutions and arms manufacturers—days after Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova slammed Italian President Sergio Mattarella’s comments that likened Russia’s aggression in Ukraine to Nazi Germany’s in World War II, prompting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to claim that Zakharova offended “the entire Italian nation”. Research Analyst Etienne Soula told the Dispatch, “Russia’s sustained attacks against companies and institutions in European democracies aim to intimidate and paralyze its detractors. Merely speaking up against Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine prompted days of disruption for Italians’ banks and arms industry. Absent a stronger and more systematic European response, or at least loud and public attribution from all 26 EU members, Russia will feel emboldened to pursue its disruptive cyber operations on the old continent.”

Newly discovered Russian military intelligence unit spearheads kinetic operations abroad: In 2023, Russian military intelligence (GRU) created a department dedicated to clandestine kinetic operations and sabotage that has been responsible for numerous attacks across Europe and elsewhere, including the attempted assassination of a German arms manufacturer’s top official and plans to place incendiary devices on cargo planes in Europe last year, according to Western intelligence officials. Co-Managing Director David Salvo said, “The establishment of a dedicated hybrid and kinetic operations unit in Russia’s GRU underscores the Kremlin’s belief that it is engaged in a conflict that engulfs all of Europe and not just Ukraine. Russia is looking to capitalize on any perceived European weakness—especially if the United States truly withdraws from its leadership role in Euro-Atlantic security—to advance its objectives, which include destabilizing and undermining democracy, promoting political actors and parties in Europe that share Russia’s worldview, and attacking perceived enemies. Hybrid and kinetic operations continue to be a low-cost, low-risk, high-reward method of keeping Europe (and, despite the recent warming of ties, the United States) off balance.”

In Case You Missed It

• The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency announced that it has paused all work on election security pending a review of its funding, activities, and personnel and is cutting off all funds for a voluntary interagency program that shares information about cyber defenses with state and local election officials.
• X verified a fake account that impersonated Maltese President Myrian Spiteri Debono, amassed 50,000 followers, and announced the creation of a national Maltese cryptocurrency, while Debono’s real account remains unverified on the site.
• 42% of Europeans aged 16 to 30 rely on social media like Instagram and TikTok as their primary source of news about political and social issues, though 70% of respondents said they felt they could effectively spot false information, according to the latest European Parliament Youth Survey.
• A top Australian intelligence official warned that at least three foreign intelligence agencies are plotting operations to harm dissidents living in Australia before upcoming elections in the country.

Future of election security efforts are uncertain after Trump actions. Co-Managing Director David Salvo quoted in AP News

With call to Russia, Trump upends US bulwark on Ukraine. Co-Managing Director David Salvo quoted in AFP

Threat Actors In Russia, China, and Iran Targeting Local Communities In The U.S – New Report. ASD research/“The State(s) of Foreign Information Manipulation” highlighted in Cybersecurity News

Мир в поисках путей, ведущих к окончанию войны в Украине (The world is looking for ways to end the war in Ukraine). Co-Managing Director David Salvo quoted in Russian Service of the Voice of America (in Russian)

“We don’t easily single out or attribute countries for doing hostile things against our cables … But equally, we don’t just believe in random things suddenly happening quite often.”

—Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in a speech at the Munich Security Conference last week, reflecting on submarine cables being cut in the Baltic Sea.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.