Securing Democracy Dispatch

ASD is going to Phoenix, Arizona! ASD and the McCain Institute will hold a conversation about artificial intelligence’s impact on the 2024 US elections, featuring Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates today, Thursday, October 17 at 5:30 pm MT/8:30 pm EST. Register to join us in person or online here!

Issues ranging from conflict in the Middle East to the economy have been front and center in US election debates thus far, but are just a fraction of what is on voters’ minds heading into the 2024 US presidential election. Join GMF for a webinar deciphering which topics are driving voters to the polls, moderated by ASD Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson on Wednesday, October 23 at 9:00 am EST. Register to watch here!

“Americans seem to be at a loss as to how to navigate” our complex information space, with many voters and businesses disengaging from politics, unable to distinguish fact from fiction, testing trust in the election process. Americans should evaluate their own information diet, find news sources that they trust, and engage with their local communities, Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson wrote in GMF.

“Russia has left no stone unturned in its interference efforts” before Moldova’s presidential election and EU membership referendum, unleashing a meddling campaign that is “unprecedented for Moldova and extraordinary even by international standards”, Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas and GMF’s Laurențiu Pleșca wrote.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• India-Canada Tensions: Russian state media firmly sided with India in its diplomatic row with Canada over allegations that Indian government agents took part in the assassination of Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in 2023. After Ottawa expelled six Indian diplomats, RT blamed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for fostering an “atmosphere of extremism and violence,” which allegedly put India’s ambassador in danger and required his recall from Canada. Sputnik India denounced Trudeau for “bowing to radicals”, meaning the pro-Khalistan movement that calls for an independent nation for the Sikh religious group and is considered a terrorist organization in India. India’s former Ambassador to Canada Prabhu Dayal repeated these sentiments in an interview with RT India, alleging that Canada is “targeting the Indian government” while “conniving with Sikh extremists.”
• Serbia and BRICS: Russia’s state-backed outlets widely shared and celebrated Serbia’s decision to consider joining BRICS. Russian state media amplified Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin’s interview with the Berliner Zeitung, where he said that “BRICS has become a real alternative to the EU”. RT shared Vulin’s frustrations with the EU for continuing to “keep setting conditions that we cannot fulfill”, including breaking off relations with Russia. Sputnik Serbia denounced Western requests to ban Russian media, highlighting how it opposes the very principles of “democracy without borders” and supports “cancel culture”. Sputnik International announced that Serbia will attend the BRICS summit in Russian Kazan later in October, after which Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that Russia offers “a model of relations that is fundamentally different from the one proposed by the so-called collective West” because it is “based on equality”.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week: 

• National Day: Following Taiwan’s National Day on October 10, the PRC launched major military exercises around the island that PRC diplomats extensively relayed, notably in Hungary, Japan, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and the United States. State media followed suit, with CCTV, CGTN, People’s Daily, Xinhua, and China Daily all posting maps of the exercise. The PRC Ministry of Defense declared that the island should “understand (…) that a sharp sword hangs over their heads” while a Pakistan-based PRC diplomat amplified a warning that “there was a time limit for completely resolving the Taiwan issue”.
• Bashing the United States: PRC diplomats and state media outlets were especially active in attacking US foreign policy last week. PRC Vice Foreign Minister Hua Chunying shared a TV interview featuring NATO’s outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, where the host claimed that the United States, not the PRC, is the real threat to world peace. The head of China Daily in Europe formulated a similar comparison but added that people in Washington were “low IQ”. Ultranationalist tabloid Global Times accused the United States of fostering instability in the Taiwan Strait, of acting irresponsibly in cyberspace, and of leading the EU into a hopeless trade war. PRC diplomats and state media also continued to denounce US support for Israel.

Swing state election officials prepare for election lies: As Election Day draws near, top election officials in key battleground states are taking steps to guard against potential false claims about election administration—including educating judges on the tight deadlines they face and potential delays—and are affirming their intention to certify election results regardless of the winner. Research Assistant Krystyna Sikora told the Dispatch, “The battleground states will not only be pivotal in deciding this year’s election, but will be on the frontlines of the fight against election falsehoods. Baseless claims about 2020 disproportionately targeted election administration in key swing states. Heading into 2024, we again are already seeing false narratives about election systems—such as ‘non-citizen voting’—gain traction in these states. Election officials learned from 2020 and are taking proactive measures to curb information threats in the post-election period.”

Information threats did not sway 2024 European Parliament election, Commission report concludes: Information threats failed to shift the results of June’s European Parliament election, despite EU-related disinformation on online platforms reaching a record-high volume in May, according to a European Commission assessment. Senior Manager for Europe and Fellow Vassilis Ntousas said, “Russia and other foreign adversaries knocked and the EU seems to have answered. Despite the expected tsunami of shady activity and nefarious actors, European election and information integrity defenses have largely managed to thwart attacks and defend the bloc’s democratic ecosystems. The Commission’s assessment testifies to a high degree of European resilience against foreign information manipulation and interference, but it also contains important and inescapable warnings for the future: bad actors did not succeed this time, but could in the future. EU member states and the EU’s new leadership, including at the Commission and the European External Action Service, will need to become much more specific as to how the next chapter of foreign interference threats and responses will play out. Similarly, policy announcements such as the European Democracy Shield will need to become less amorphous to provide a concrete direction of travel for the EU.”

In Case You Missed It

• A judge in the US state of Georgia temporarily blocked a recently instituted rule that would have required poll workers to hand count all ballots cast on Election Day on the grounds that it introduced uncertainty and risk to election processes. 
• US intelligence officials have delivered three times as many briefings to potential targets of foreign interference campaigns as in previous election cycles.
• Russia, the PRC, and Iran have increasingly enlisted criminal networks to launch various cyber intrusions against the United States, Israel, and other countries, according to Microsoft.
• Chinese hackers were reportedly behind a cyber intrusion targeting a policy think tank with close ties to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.
• Canada expelled six Indian diplomats for alleged involvement in murders and extortion of critics of the Indian government living in Canada; India sent six Canadian diplomats home in response.

“Over the past 10 days, I have been proud of how our mountain communities have come together to help one another. We have seen a level of support that is unmatched by most any disaster nationwide; but amidst all of the support, we have also seen an uptick in untrustworthy sources trying to spark chaos by sharing hoaxes, conspiracy theories, and hearsay about hurricane response efforts.”

—Chuck Edwards, US Representative for North Carolina’s 11th District, in a press release published on October 8 debunking common myths about the US government’s response to Hurricane Helene.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.