Securing Democracy Dispatch

GMF condemns political violence and the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump last weekend. Read GMF President Heather Conley’s statement here.

The attempted assassination of Trump prompted a deluge of conspiracy theories on American social media. Foreign adversaries like Russia, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Iran will seek to “target the left and right” alike in their efforts to manipulate American public opinion, Co-Managing Director David Salvo told AP News.

It is a foregone conclusion that these countries will activate their online networks and media to showcase and exacerbate US divisions, but domestic voices are currently driving the conspiracies and narratives, allowing foreign actors to bide their time, Senior Fellow Bret Schafer told NBC News.

Russian diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Trump Assassination Attempt: The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed in the aftermath of the Trump assassination attempt that “incitement to hatred of political opponents is being stimulated [in the United States]” and that US democracy has “been brought to a suicidal state”. RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan likened the shooting to the assassination of John F. Kennedy, implicitly implying that US intelligence was involved—a claim made explicitly by other state media figures. Predictably, Russian state media also pushed conspiracy theories that Ukrainian intelligence may have been involved, citing a letter to Trump from pro-Kremlin Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk who wrote to the former president that it was his belief that “there will be a Ukrainian trace in the case of the assassination attempt on you”.
• Ukraine and NATO: In response to NATO’s statement last week that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to join the organization, Russian state media amplified dissenting voices from NATO member states, including US Senator Rand Paul, who said that the statement “emboldens Russia” and that expansion was “the worst decision of the United States”. More than 100 posts on Telegram from monitored Russian accounts also promoted Hungarian President Viktor Orbán’s peace plan or amplified statements by Orbán and other Hungarian officials who suggested that the alliance’s approach to Ukraine “had not yielded results”, that its direction is “dangerous and even irresponsible”, and that “Hungary does not consider Russia a threat”. 

The PRC’s diplomats and state media focused on two main narratives this week:

• Interest in the US Election: PRC state media coverage of the Trump assassination attempt was largely factual, but a few commentators provided more editorialized takes that included deriding US media coverage of the incident, implying that the shooting was emblematic of a broader shattering of US democracy, and predicting that the incident would help Trump win in November. PRC state media also covered Trump’s vice-presidential pick, with the Global Times commenting that JD Vance embodied “loyalty” to Trump and “an alliance with tech protectionists” like Elon Musk. When asked about Vance calling the PRC the “biggest threat” to the United States, the PRC MFA opposed “making China an issue in US elections”.
• “Troublemaker” NATO: PRC diplomats took aim at NATO after the alliance’s summit last week in Washington, which produced a declaration that criticized the PRC on a number of fronts. The MFA contended that the bloc’s security was “built on others’ insecurity”. The PRC ambassador to the United Nations claimed that “turmoil and chaos” always followed NATO. The PRC embassy in France accused it of manufacturing crises to keep itself alive, and the PRC embassy in Italy quoted US professor Jeffrey Sachs, who contrasted a “meeting for world peace” in the PRC with the alliance’s supposed “meeting for war” in Washington. 

Nevada county refuses to certify two primaries’ results after election denial claims: Local officials in Washoe County, Nevada voted against certifying two primary races—both of which were deemed accurate after a recount—amid unfound claims from prominent election deniers that the results were fraudulent. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson told the Dispatch, “Refusing to certify elections because of conspiracy theories or just because someone dislikes the result is a dangerous path to barrel down. Certification of results that have been audited and/or recounted according to the law is a critical step in the election process. Bad information and conspiracy theories, coupled with hyperpolarization and distrust, create a fraught election administration process. This is not an isolated problem—we have seen similar attempts in other counties in recent elections. State and county officials should prepare now so that they are not caught flat footed if a similar refusal to certify pops up in their county.” 

US Senator Menendez found guilty on all counts in corruption trial, including acting as a foreign agent: US Senator Bob Menendez was found guilty of all 16 counts in a high-profile corruption trial in which he was accused of accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes from Egypt and Qatar to influence foreign policy and business, including by easing the country’s access to US military aid and weapons and  facilitating a business deal between a New Jersey businessman and a Qatari investor. Co-Managing Director David Salvo said, “Sadly, corruption is one of the facilitating engines of foreign interference. In the case of Senator Menendez, the Egyptian government found an easy motive on the receiving end—profit—and in return was able to get one of the senior-most US officials to do its bidding on several key policy issues.”

In Case You Missed It

• Coordinated networks of accounts on X flooded German, French, and Italian users with disinformation in the weeks and days before the European Parliament elections, a report by Dutch researchers found.
• The chair of the US Federal Communications Commission proposed tighter restrictions on robocalls that use artificial intelligence (AI) and empower state officials to crack down on businesses that deploy the technology for robocalls.
• Digital infrastructure operated by the Russian disinformation network Doppelgänger was discovered across 10 European countries, according to a new report.
• The European Commission said X’s failure to clamp down on disinformation and illegal content breaches the platform’s obligations under the Digital Services Act.
• The US Agency for International Development announced a partnership with IBM to deploy staff to bolster cyberdefense and institutions in select Eastern European countries.

US Closely Intertwined With China’s Economy, May Lack Leverage to Influence China’s Relationship With Russia: Expert. Co-Managing Director David Salvo interviewed in NTD

United States intelligence officials: Russia’s Putin wants to boost Trump in 2024 race for president. Senior Fellow Bret Schafer quoted in MSNBC

Counties are positioned to heal dissatisfaction with American democracy. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson quoted in National Association of Counties

Trump backs away from Project 2025. What does that mean for foreign aid? Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson quoted in Devex

Alliance for Securing Democracy discusses Biden NATO press conference. Co-Managing Director Rachael Dean Wilson interviewed on CNBC

“Violence targeted at any political party or political leader is absolutely unacceptable. It has no place in Pennsylvania or the United States.”

—Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, in a statement released on July 13 following Trump’s attempted assassination at a rally in Butler, Pa.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.