Securing Democracy Dispatch

Polish voters turned out in historic numbers to elect what will likely become a new governing coalition, despite the country’s slide toward autocracy, including state capture of the media and politicized government institutions. Read Senior Fellow Josh Rudolph, Senior Fellow David Levine, and Research Assistant Krystyna Sikora’s analysis from election day.

Germany realized after Russia invaded Ukraine that depending on autocratic regimes for critical infrastructure and supplies is unsustainable. To avoid similar complications with China down the road, it should begin phasing out its Huawei networks sooner rather than later, Senior Fellow Lindsay Gorman told POLITICO.

New US export controls target China’s AI systems: The US Commerce Department announced new export controls to crack down on China’s access to advanced chips used to power the country’s artificial intelligence systems, closing perceived loopholes from previous rounds of restrictions. Senior Fellow Lindsay Gorman told the Dispatch, “The latest round of chip restrictions seeks to close critical loopholes in the Chinese government’s access to the tools to build advanced AI systems. Given the complexity and at times porous nature of international semiconductor input supply chains, as well as the novelty of this approach, updates to controls to ensure they best meet objectives are expected. My hope is that the United States and its democratic partners will build experience in how to control the outflow of technical capabilities through defensive technology measures, but we are seeing the United States hone this tech control strategy in real-time in the context of AI chip export controls.”

China’s Belt and Road summit stresses ties with Russia, new projects: At the Belt and Road Initiative summit this week in Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin lauded the project as part of a new world order and stressed Russian-Chinese cooperation in Central Asia, while Chinese President Xi Jinping said new infrastructure projects would be smaller and greener. Research Analyst Etienne Soula said, “Putin’s trip to Beijing further cements the ‘no-limits partnership’ between China and Russia. Tellingly, the Russian president gave a long interview to Chinese state media in which he lauded China’s broader efforts to promote formats like the BRICS that sideline Western democracies and their allies. However, as a domestic downturn is forcing Beijing to scale back its massive investment programs around the world, it remains to be seen whether a tighter alliance between Russia and China can offset their growing isolation from developed economies.”

Ukrainian parliament improves financial oversight of public officials: Ukraine’s parliament approved legislation to monitor certain former public officials’ financial activities for life, extending the previous duration of three years and satisfying a key precondition for advancing Ukraine’s European Union accession path. Senior Fellow Josh Rudolph said, “This was the top anti-corruption reform that we had identified as a promising condition for continued US assistance. Now that Kyiv has gone ahead and adopted it, the United States should do its part and go big on Ukraine aid, potentially linked to Israel aid.”

In Case You Missed It

• Russian cybercriminals and Hamas-linked groups have continued to launder and raise money on a Moscow-based cryptocurrency exchange, despite being placed on a US blacklist last year.
• X’s owner Elon Musk is considering removing access to the platform in the European Union amid an EU inquiry into its compliance with the Digital Services Act, according to reports.
• China surpassed Russia as the greatest threat in cyberspace, according to the CEO of cyber intelligence firm Mandiant, who cited China’s increasing innovation and capacity in hacking operations.
• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed support for European efforts to redirect frozen Russian assets toward a fund to support Ukraine.
• Bulgaria imposed taxes on Russian-owned gas and oil, attempting to incentivize Russian producers to leave Europe’s market and other European buyers—like Hungary and Serbia—to look for alternative energy suppliers.
• South Korea’s government blocked a company from working on an indigenous submarine project for Taiwan due to fears about economic retaliation from China.

Time to be the arsenal of democracy. Senior Fellow Josh Rudolph wrote in The Hill

China’s Warplanes on Track To Buzz Taiwan in Record Numbers. Senior Fellow Lindsay Gorman quoted in Newsweek

Möglicher Boykott von Huawei und ZTE: Druck auf Kanzler Scholz wächst (Possible boycott of Huawei and ZTE: Pressure on Chancellor Scholz is growing). Senior Fellow Lindsay Gorman quoted in Tagesspiegel

Merkelino gađenje prema Trumpu razlog je zašto nije zabranila Huawei (Merkel’s distaste for Trump is why she didn’t ban Huawei). Senior Fellow Lindsay Gorman quoted in Index.hr

“The use of AI… to create potential deepfakes is something that adds a level of threat that we haven’t previously encountered…. An existing strategy by hostile nations could become more dangerous.”

—FBI Director Christopher Wray warned at a public summit of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing group on October 18.

The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone.